Pennsylvania Primary a 'No Excuse' Contest for Clinton and Obama

WASHINGTON — Pennsylvania's primary on April 22, which begins the final lap of the 10 remaining contests in the Democratic presidential campaign, is a "no excuse" match between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

No excuse in that there is little chance for gate-crashing by independents or Republicans; there is no Iowa, New Hampshire or Super Tuesday "bump" at work; both campaigns have had six weeks to organize and develop their campaign messages; both have the financial resources for an expensive TV ad war; and both have the backing of important party establishment figures in the state.

"Pennsylvania is purely man-o versus woman-o," said independent pollster John Zogby.

In some ways, "it's a lot like Iowa," the first contest of the year, said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report newsletter. In the six weeks between Pennsylvania and the important Ohio and Texas primaries, "both candidates certainly have had the opportunity to talk to Democrats, to make their case across the state," he said. And "the voters certainly have had the opportunity to give them a thoughtful analysis," he added.

Not that there won't be excuses from both camps on the morning of April 23, however.

"I'd be surprised if the loser doesn't have some excuse and the winner doesn't have some explanation of why they didn't win bigger," said Jennifer Victor, a University of Pittsburgh political scientist who frequently appears in the Pennsylvania media. "It's the same old game of expectations."

Polling shows Clinton leading, but many have Obama surging. Most experts believe Clinton has to win - and win big - in Pennsylvania in order to compete in the nine primaries or caucuses that follow the Keystone State. And "if she doesn't get a majority of the vote (in Pennsylvania), she's in a real pickle," added Victor.

Indeed, for Obama, "the Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes," said Clay Richards, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which has done extensive polling in Pennsylvania. "Senator Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner," he added.

Just in case, though, the Obama campaign is already operating at full speed in the state primaries that immediately follow Pennsylvania: On May 6, Indiana and North Carolina vote, and Obama trails slightly in Indiana but has at least a double-digit lead in most North Carolina polls. Together, Indiana and North Carolina have more delegates at stake - a total of 187 - than Pennsylvania, with 158.

Nothing that happens in Pennsylvania, Indiana or North Carolina is likely to shift the focus from the role that the nearly 800 Democratic superdelegates - mostly party officials, activists and insiders - will have to play in choosing either Obama or Clinton as the party nominee, however, because neither candidate will be able to cinch the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination without the support of superdelegates.

The latest delegate count by The Associated Press (AP) has Obama with 1,639 and Clinton with 1,503. Obama could nail down the nomination if he won all but 180 of the 566 national convention delegates still to be chosen during the next eight weeks - a virtually impossible task. Clinton can't reach 2,025 without superdelegate help.

Like in Pennsylvania, where some 300,000 voters have filed new registrations as Democrats since last November to vote in the April 22 primary, new voter registration has also surged in Indiana and North Carolina, widely viewed as a positive sign for Obama, who has been the main reason for the registration surges in previous contests.

In Indiana, some county offices have reportedly struggled to meet the demands of voter registration drives. And In North Carolina, there has been a boon in voter registration across age, race, gender and party affiliation, but especially among African Americans. More than 45,000 blacks have registered in North Carolina in the first three months of this year, a sign that bodes well for Obama.

But unlike Indiana and North Carolina, which typically vote Republican in presidential general elections, Pennsylvania is one of the most important states in Democratic presidential strategies: a swing state that onetime Clinton White House adviser James Carville famously described as "Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama stuffed between them."

Consequently, part of the argument between Obama and Clinton in the Pennsylvania campaign is over which of the two would be the strongest general election candidate against the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain. An AP-Ipsos poll released last Thursday found that McCain has erased the 10-point lead Obama had over him in February in a head-to-head presidential match up. Both polled 45 percent, whereas in February, it was Obama 51 percent, McCain 41 percent. Similarly, Clinton led McCain 48-43 percent in February, but still polled ahead of him in the latest survey, 48-45 percent.

Pennsylvania has the sixth largest population in the country. It is a stronghold of white, blue collar "Reagan Democrats," who typically side with the Democrats on the economy but with the Republicans on security and "values" issues, many of them Catholic with roots in Eastern Europe. Almost one in three households include a union member. And 46 percent of its voters own a gun.

Although its manufacturing sector has lost a fifth of its jobs since 2000, Pennsylvania has experienced significant growth in employment in education, health services and business services during the same eight years. And in Philadelphia, with its four suburban counties, the state has the fourth largest metropolitan area in the country - youthful, trendy, more ethnic and fast-growing, with nearly one in five registered Democrats living there.

Consequently, "the Philadelphia suburbs will be critical" in the April 22 voting, said Michael Hagen, director for the Institute for Public Affairs at Temple University in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia will be the site of a debate between Obama and Clinton on Wednesday night.