In Cuba, a Sign of More Changes to Come?

Just six weeks into his term as Cuba's new president, Raul Castro appears to be making his mark, rolling back restrictions that have long frustrated his impoverished people.

Permission to buy cell phones and computers, a new television channel with foreign programming, a sudden end to an onerous ban on Cubans staying at hotels previously reserved for foreign tourists: the news from Cuba in the past week has been like a breath of fresh air to many on the Communist island.

But analysts say the government's recent rapid-fire announcements address only superficial problems. Raul's new government still faces a daunting set of structural problems if it is to revive the island's moribund economy and head off a growing dissatisfaction among a population of 11 million that struggles to survive on wages that average a paltry $15 to $20 a month, they believe.

"This seems to be window-dressing, the easy things that can be done," said Jonathan Brown of the University of Texas Institute for Latin American Studies. "Maybe it's a trial balloon. I think the new leadership feels the heat, and I wonder how much time they have. My sense of people on the street in Cuba is that they expect change. The question is whether it comes too slow or not at all."

Some Cuba-watchers in the United States also ponder what the moves mean in terms of Raul's relationship with his brother, Fidel, the dictator who installed a communist government in the early 1960s and ran it with an iron hand until a life-threatening intestinal illness sidelined him in July 2006.

Fidel, 81, no longer seen in public, continues writing long-winded essays, mostly on world affairs, for the Cuban press. Known as an obsessive micro-manager in his heyday, nobody knows how much influence he now has over Raul's decisions.

Observers point out that in his Feb. 24 speech accepting the presidency, Raul, 76, paid repeated homage to Fidel and promised to consult with him on all important decisions, while also vowing to ease Cuba's "excessive prohibitions."

But Fidel, a die-hard communist ideologue, never would have touched the restrictions that Raul so quickly reversed, analysts say.

"Under Fidel, the guiding philosophy was that not everyone can afford these things, so nobody should be allowed to have them," said Philip Peters, a Cuba expert at the Lexington Institute, a Washington, D.C. think tank. "So these decisions show the hyper-egalitarian thinking of Fidel is gone, and that's a good thing in the long run."

The fact that Raul reversed at least a few restrictions so quickly could be a sign that Fidel no longer holds veto power over his brother's actions, some speculate.

"Raul is running the country because Fidel would never have made these moves," said Jaime Suchlicki, head of the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. "Fidel is out of power."

Others, however, aren't so sure.

"I think Fidel agreed reluctantly," said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, an emeritus professor of Economics at the University of Pittsburgh. "Raul has always been loyal to Fidel, so we have to assume they discussed it. I think Fidel accepts it, but he doesn't like it."

Experts point out that in desperation after his economy collapsed following the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union and the loss of billions in annual subsidies, Fidel allowed a few hundred Cubans to open private restaurants and rent rooms to tourists, policies that Raul reportedly supported.

But when Cuba's economy stabilized, Fidel quickly imposed new fees and restrictions on the private businesses, railing, as usual, against the evils of private ownership and a consumerism.

That makes the current spectacle of eager Cubans lining up to buy DVD players and cell phones — a story that got widespread international play last week — all the more intriguing.

While generally praising Raul's changes as "positive," analysts also note that in a country with such low wages, very few people will be able to afford $700 computers or a stay at a $150-a-night luxury hotel. Yet some Cubans did line up for the new items, raising the question of whether Raul's move to crack open the consumer door could be a risky strategy.

"He could be opening a Pandora's box," Suchlicki said. "People will want more changes, more consumer goods. And this could deepen social divisions. Those without the money to buy these things, who tend to be black Cubans, will resent that white Cubans who get money from their relatives in Miami can afford them."

But most analysts believe more changes are coming. There is speculation that Raul might allow more private businesses, ease restrictions on Cubans traveling abroad and phase out, or at least tinker with, Cuba's unpopular system of dual currencies.

Cubans in state jobs are paid in regular pesos, which are worth 24 times less than the convertible pesos that tourists are required to use in their visits on the island. Those paid in regular pesos resent the fact that Cubans with tourism jobs or access to bonuses or tips paid in convertible pesos have far more spending power.

Raul has hinted he would address the currency problem, but most observers believe he will do so only gradually.

Yet there are signs he may tackle the more thorny issues.

Last year Cuba spent $1.6 billion on food imports, and the agricultural system has largely been a shambles for years, with lackluster production, terrible waste and few incentives for farmers to work harder.

In recent weeks the government announced it will allow individual farmers and cooperatives to till unused land. The move comes on the heels of recent dramatic increases in prices paid for beef and milk, a hike in farm-worker pay, more freedom for farmers to grow what they want and sell it for their own gain, and easier, cheaper access to fertilizer, seed and tools.

"This is far more important than the measures dealing with DVD players and cell phones," said Mesa-Lago. "If farmers get better pay and prices, they'll produce more, and that is one of Cuba's biggest problems."

But just how far Raul Castro will go remains to be seen.

"There will be more changes," said Mesa-Lago. "But how deep and how far, I can't say."