Election Could Signal Better Ties between Taiwan, China

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Jian Mao-lin could be a poster child for Taiwan.

The 58-year-old taxi driver used to think the self-ruled island should push for greater independence from China, which has claimed Taiwan since the end of a civil war almost 60 years ago.

Now he believes Taiwan's leaders should tone down their rhetoric and make peace with the communist regime in Beijing.

"We need to be realistic," he said as he drove through downtown Taipei, Taiwan's capital. "The most important thing is that we improve our economy."

Jian's change of heart is part of an island-wide moderation on Taiwan's independence — a change welcomed by Washington because it lowers the likelihood of a conflict between the United States, which has promised to protect Taiwan, and China, which claims it as an inseparable part.

Opinion polls ahead of a national election Saturday [March 22] show a large majority of Taiwanese favor Ma Ying-jeou, a candidate for Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party who advocates increased trade and tourism with China, the first regular direct flights and a possible peace agreement.

Frank Hseih, the candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which under the leadership of current President Chen Shui-bian has angered Beijing by promoting Taiwanese independence, has also taken a more conciliatory stance towards China. Among other things, he called last month for a meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao if he is elected.

Regardless of the outcome, the election is likely to reduce tension across the Taiwan Strait, experts in Beijing, Taipei and Washington said.

In all three capitals, "people consider Chen as reckless and provocative and not actually benefiting cross-Strait relations," said Andrew Yang, director of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei. "There's a strong expectation that something can be done (after the election) to improve cross-Strait ties."

The shift in Taiwan has been driven partly by China's rise.

As China's economy has surged, Beijing has pressured nations and non-government groups to sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan. China's military budget has grown more than 10 percent each year for nearly two decades, increasing the potential costs of a conflict.

Last May, Costa Rica dropped recognition of Taiwan, leaving only 24 world governments — most of them tiny and poor — that officially recognize the island.

"Taiwanese realize that, like it or not, Taiwan has to come to terms with China," said Lo Chih-cheng, an expert in international politics at Taipei's Soochow University. "They are getting more pragmatic."

Beijing has been angered by Chen's moves to distance the island from China. Among other things, Chen's administration has reduced education about Chinese history in public schools and substituted Taiwan for China in the names of government offices and state-owned companies.

Chinese officials are particularly upset by a question on Saturday's ballot asking voters if they support an attempt to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan rather than the Republic of China, the island's formal name.

"The DPP has always believed that we must instill a sense of self-confidence and pride in the Taiwanese people," said Bi-Khim Hsiao, a top adviser to Frank Hsieh. "Beijing doesn't want to see that evolution of a stronger Taiwanese identity."

Beijing has warned repeatedly that if Taipei declares independence, it will attack the island. Washington has scolded Chen's initiatives in unusually harsh language. Last December, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the U.N. referendum a "provocative policy" opposed by Washington.

Lo and other experts point to Taiwan's changing political climate. A national legislative election last month resulted in a rout of the Democratic Progressive Party, an outcome analysts said was partly a repudiation of Chen's policy toward China.

A survey released Monday by the Institute of Social Sciences at Taiwan's National Sun Yat-sen University gave Ma a lead of 13 percentage points in the March 22 election. Other polls have shown Ma leading Hsieh by about 20 points.

In Taipei, many Taiwanese hoped improved ties with China would boost Taiwan's economy.

Chung Sheng-hong, a 38-year-old manager for a company that makes exercise equipment in China and Taiwan, said he had supported the Democratic Progressive Party in prior elections but would vote for Nationalist Party candidate Ma next Saturday.

"We have to rely on mainland China to grow our economy," he said. "China can provide cheap labor and we can provide design and management skills, so a better relationship would be good from everyone."

Zhen Pu-qing, a 27-year-old architecture student, supported Ma partly because she saw little benefit in pushing for Taiwan's independence.

"We can't be independent now if Beijing doesn't support it, so we should just work to have better ties while maintaining de-facto independence," she said.

Few Taiwanese support reunification with China even under a regime similar to the "one country, two systems" governance model used in Hong Kong, which returned to Chinese rule from British rule in 1997.

But because Taiwanese President Chen and Beijing's leaders "have come to a point of no return," next week's election "will offer a new beginning," Soochow University expert Lo said.

"Now both sides have to seize the opportunity," he said.