What Happens after Tuesday? It Depends on What Happens Tuesday

AUSTIN — What comes after the crucial presidential primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont largely depends on what happens Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, a sweep of Texas and Ohio by front-runner Barack Obama could mean the end of the campaign for Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side, John McCain can clinch the nomination by picking up 178 of the 256 delegates up for grabs in all four states, making it time for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to step aside.

But on the eve of the important voting in Texas and Ohio, neither Huckabee nor Clinton gave any indication that they plan to wrap up their White House bids, even after the votes are tallied Tuesday evening.

"I guess my question is, what's the hurry?" Huckabee said on CNN. "We're six months away from the convention. ... What is wrong with the people in this party that we ought to just end the game before it's even been finished. I don't get that."

Noting the strong turnout at some of his recent campaign events, Huckabee added, "When people quit coming and people quit giving and they just decide that it's over, then it's over."

Clinton, speaking with reporters on her campaign plane in Ohio, dismissed the suggestion that she lacks any momentum in the wake of Obama having won 11 consecutive primaries or caucuses and possibly making it 15 straight with a sweep Tuesday. "I'm just getting warmed up," she said, vowing to "move on to Pennsylvania and the states coming up" after the Ohio and Texas primaries.

"Hard-fought primary contests are a part of American politics," said Clinton. We're going to have a hard-fought contest, we're going to have a unified Democratic Party, we're going to get behind whoever our nominee is and we're going to win in November."

But even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has publicly suggested that she needs to win Texas and Ohio to continue her bid for the party's nomination, although some experts say a victory in Ohio alone could be enough to convince her to soldier on to Pennsylvania, which votes April 22, the first contest after Wyoming's caucus on March 8 and Mississippi's primary on March 11.

"Pennsylvania demographically is much like Ohio and a pretty good fit for her campaign," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which has done extensive polling in both states. "It would not be surprising to see her take the battle there." But if she loses Texas and Ohio, "she will have little alternative to throwing in the towel," he said. "Even if she believe she can win the nomination with losses there, no one else will and the superdelegates will flock to Senator Obama, " Brown added.

But, if she wins in Texas and Ohio, "she'll have cause to claim that she is back in the race as a contender," with money and momentum coming her way," Brown said. "And the most unhappy person in that event, if not Barack Obama, would be (Democratic National Committee Chairman) Howard Dean, who has nightmares about the nomination fight going to the convention."

Obama endorsed the idea Clinton needs wins in both states, which have a combined 334 delegates at stake, to prolong the Democratic race.

"If we do well in Texas and Ohio, I think the math is such where it's going to be hard for her to win the nomination. And they'll have to make a decision about how much longer they want to pursue it,'' the Illinois senator said in an ABC interview shown on "Good Morning America."

But in a conference call with reporters, Clinton advisers suggested that Tuesday's results, rather than dramatically altering the delegate count, could signal that some Democrats are starting to have second thoughts about Obama being the party's nominee. "With all the advantages the Obama campaign has going into Tuesday, if they are unable to translate them into victory or success, it says that the serious case of buyer's remorse is setting in on the part of Democrats," said Clinton communications chief Howard Wolfson.

But Obama campaign manager David Plouffe released a memo questioning Clinton's options if she does not make major strides in catching up to Obama in pledged delegates. "While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning," the memo said. "What is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math."

Obama already has 1,386 delegates to Clinton's 1,276, according to an Associated Press tally. A total of 2,025 are needed to secure the Democratic nomination at the party's convention in late August in Denver. Neither can win without the backing of superdelegates, the party leaders and activists who get as much say about who the party's presidential nominee will be as the delegates won by the candidates in the party's primaries and caucuses.

After Tuesday, only 10 more states, Guam and Puerto Rico are scheduled to hold Democratic primaries or caucuses.

A "poll of polls" calculated Monday by CNN for the Texas race has Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent, with 8 percent unsure. A CNN "poll of polls" for the Ohio race has Clinton ahead of Obama, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent unsure.

According to CNN's "poll of polls" in Texas, McCain leads Huckabee 58 percent to 30 percent. The final Ohio poll before Tuesday's voting shows McCain with a 54-23 percent lead over Huckabee in the Buckeye State.

McCain told reporters in Phoenix he was "guardedly confident" he could reach the 1,191 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination on Tuesday and move on to a general election campaign. "I still respect Governor Huckabee's right to remain in this race for as long as he feels necessary to do so," he said.

But McCain advisers have made it clear Monday that it will be time for Huckabee to step aside when the Arizona senator surpasses the 1,191 delegates needed for nomination.

"Once we get enough delegates to go over the required number, which will happen (Tuesday), he risks staying too long at the party," a top McCain adviser said recently of Huckabee.

Huckabee aides have said he might tone down or suspend his campaign when McCain clinches, but the candidate on Monday offered no hint of an intention to slow down.

"You can beat me but you can't make me quit," he said Monday after a Waco speech.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the third candidate still standing in the GOP race, also has indicated he will go on.

The next stop in the GOP battle is May 11 in Mississippi, a state where Huckabee could have enough support to deal an embarrassing blow to McCain.

After that, the next battle is Pennsylvania's April 22 primary. McCain stands to run well there, but his campaign does not relish the idea of another seven weeks of the Huckabee campaign.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas and a McCain backer, said Monday it's time for Huckabee to give serious thought to giving up.

"Everyone has their right to stay in a race," she said on MSNBC. "But I think Republicans are ready and very anxious now to come behind our candidate."

That also was the message was Monday when six more GOP governors signed on as McCain endorsers.

"Now is the time to unite our party behind John McCain," said Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, one of the six along with John Hoeven of North Dakota, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Linda Lingle of Hawaii, Sonny Perdue of Georgia and Bob Riley of Alabama.

That leaves only seven GOP governors who have not endorsed McCain.

Texas, with 137 GOP delegates, is Huckabee's Tuesday target. And the state has some rules that could benefit him. Ninety-six delegates will be awarded based on results in the state's 32 congressional districts. It's winner-take-all for any candidate who can get more than half the votes in a district. But with Paul still in the race and drawing some home-state support, it could be tough for McCain to top the 50-percent mark in some districts. If no candidate gets a majority of votes, all candidates who get at least 20 percent will be awarded delegates on a proportional basis.

The rest of the delegates are awarded based on the statewide vote, again with the 50-percent winner-take-all provision and 20-percent threshold.