Cubans Closely Watching U.S. Presidential Race

HAVANA — Politics is a hot topic here. Stories detailing the latest debate and the most recent vote totals appear frequently in the communist island's state-run newspapers and television broadcasts, and people on the streets chat about which candidate has the best chance to win.

But the election in question won't take place in Cuba.

With their island only 90 miles from the Florida Keys and their history entwined with their larger neighbor's, Cuba's 11 million residents are keenly aware of the U.S. presidential race, following each twist and turn in the campaign with intense interest.

"The United States could have its first woman president, or even a black man," said Roberto Gonzalez, a taxi driver. "That would make history, just as we made history here in Cuba last week."

Gonzalez was referring to the retirement of Fidel Castro, 81, who stepped down from Cuba's top post because of ill health, giving up official leadership of the government he founded nearly 50 years ago with Cuba's 1959 Revolution.

Castro's brother, Raul, 76, was selected as president by the National Assembly on Feb. 24, and quickly reassured his countrymen that his brother's communist ideals will continue to guide the island.

The news was a disappointment to some Cubans, who hoped that Raul would step aside and allow a younger leader to take the reins, perhaps charting a new course that could lead to an end of the long standoff between Cuba and the United States.

The two nations' relations have been troubled since Teddy Roosevelt led a band of American invaders and conquered the island during the Spanish American War in the 1890s. Cuba was an American protectorate for years in the early 20th Century, ruled from a capitol building that is a scaled-down replica of the Capitol in Washington.

The building still stands today, often drawing double-takes from tourists unfamiliar with the complex history between the nations.

While many Cubans follow their government's lead in criticizing the record of repeated U.S. meddling in Cuban affairs, most also say they feel a kinship with the American people apart from politics.

"Cubans aren't that politically-minded," said Luciano, a retired bookbinder, who, like many Cubans, refused to give his last name out of fear it might get him into trouble. "We like the American people but when it comes to politics, there's no agreement. Our government has made plenty of mistakes, but so has yours. With politicians it's all shouting and shouting."

Cubans are surprisingly well-informed about the intricacies of the American electoral process. Most will quickly tell you the difference between the two main U.S. political parties, Republicans and Democrats, and they are familiar with the series of state primary elections leading up to the national conventions.

Most, it seems, hope a Democrat will win.

"The Democrats have usually been more favorable toward an opening with Cuba, even if it hasn't happened," said Vladimir Torres, who sells sweets to children in a Havana neighborhood. "The Republicans are controlled by the Cubans in Miami, and they hate Fidel. They want a permanent war against Cuba."

Some Cubans say they've given up hope for a change in American policies. The Cuban government constantly blasts the four-decade old U.S. embargo, blaming it for the island's poverty and economic problems. Some believe the embargo won't be lifted until the generation of Cubans who fled to the U.S. following Castro's Revolution has passed from the scene, just as some American scholars say Cuba won't change until the Castro brothers are no longer around.

"Change isn't possible until all these old men die off," Luciano said. "Our new president, Raul, may have his own policies, but he can't follow them until his brother is gone. It's the same with the Cubans in Miami, who have so much influence over your policy."

When pressed, Cubans, like many Americans, seem split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the two Democratic contenders. Many Cubans have written off the apparent Republican nominee, John McCain, saying he will continue enforcing the embargo and won't be open to improving relations with Cuba.

"I think a lot of people prefer Obama but they think he can't win because he is a black man," said Gonzalez, the taxi driver. "But he has said he would meet with Raul Castro, and that would be a big change. Cubans want Americans here, your tourists and your exchange students. And we'd like to see our exchange students in your country. We want normal relations."

What most Cubans agree on is that any new American president will be better than President Bush, who has tightened the embargo and imprisoned Islamic terrorism suspects for years without trials at the naval base the United States still maintains at Guantanamo Bay, on Cuba's eastern tip.

"We don't care if it's a Democrat or a Republican," said Miguel Martinez Montelvan, a retired history professor. "What's most important is to have a president better than Bush, and anybody would be better. Bush has been a disaster for your country and for ours, and for the whole world. Even your own opinion polls show most Americans think he's the worst president in U.S. history."