COX Newspapers Washington Bureau

Raul Castro Named Cuba's New President


Cox News Service
Monday, February 25, 2008

As expected, Raul Castro was named Sunday as Cuba's new president, replacing his ailing brother, Fidel, who announced last week he would step away from power after nearly five decades at Cuba's helm.

The younger Castro's selection by the 614-member National Assembly was a foregone conclusion to many, a sign of Fidel's determination to keep Cuba on a socialist path and ensure his legacy.

The elder Castro, 81, has not been seen in public since he fell ill with intestinal bleeding 19 months ago.

Raul, 76, stepped in as interim leader in July 2006, and on Sunday essentially ended his brother's long political career when he was elected to a five-year term as president of the Council of State, Cuba's top governing body.

Prior to the vote in Cuba, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called for Cuba to move toward democratic change, underscoring the long rift between the U.S. and Cuba.

"We urge the Cuban government to begin a process of peaceful, democratic change by releasing all political prisoners, respecting human rights and creating a clear pathway toward free and fair elections," Rice said in a statement released in Washington while she traveled in Asia.

After Castro's retirement announcement last week, there was speculation among Cuba-watchers in the U.S. that a younger leader might emerge, perhaps Vice President Carlos Lage, 56, a pediatrician who has become something of an economic czar on the island.

But the Cuban assembly bypassed Lage and filled the job of first vice president with Jose Ramon Machado, 77, a Fidel confidant who was one of the original rebels in the Castro brothers' drive to overthrow dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

The election of a figure from the "old guard" as next in line behind Raul Castro seemed to signal that Fidel continues exerting influence over decisions in Cuba. It might also disappoint Cubans hoping for at least mild economic reforms to ease their daily struggles.

Instead, the message from the Castro brothers seems to be that they should not expect too much, too fast. In his first speech to the nation as president, Raul Castro said he would continue consulting with his brother in all important decisions.

There were no demonstrations immediately after Raul was handed the presidency. Cuba has remained calm in the months since Castro fell ill, but the nation's internal security forces allow almost no dissent.

Raul Castro faces many challenges in trying to fill the shoes of his more charismatic brother. While Fidel was an electrifying speaker, Raul disdains the limelight and is ponderous at the podium. While Fidel thrived on ideological debate, Raul is said to be a hard-nosed pragmatist.

Cuba's economy has grown rapidly in recent years, but the majority of the nation's 11 million residents still earn paltry salaries of only about $15 to $20 a month. Cubans complain, often quietly, about a lack of consumer goods, bad public transportation, and limited opportunities. Many professionals have given up careers to work in the tourism industry, where they can earn tips from the estimated 2 million foreign visitors who now make up the backbone of the Cuban economy.

Raul seems mindful of those challenges. In his 19 months as interim leader, he has blasted the inefficiency and petty theft that plagues the island's state-run enterprises and called for a national debate on how best to change the Cuban system while remaining firmly on the socialist path.

The younger Castro has also said he would be open to a dialogue with the U.S., although few observers expect Washington will respond until after a new U.S. president takes office next January. Both Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, said after Fidel's retirement announcement that the U.S. should support the fostering of democracy in Cuba.

Observers say Raul Castro may not rule long, as his health is reportedly not the best. His official term as president of the Council of State lasts five years.

"Raul has to deliver on food, jobs and consumer goods because the Cuban people expect it," said Jaime Suchlicki, a Cuba expert at the University of Miami. "But he only has a short span, three to five years, and then he's done."

For all the historic drama of Fidel Castro's retirement, it's clear the aging communist firebrand has once again confounded his enemies. Cuban exiles in Miami have longed for his death for decades, hoping his sudden departure would throw the island into crisis that might topple the communist government.

But the transition to the post-Fidel era in Cuba has come off without a hitch, and Cuba's people, despite what appears to be a desire for change, seem likely to continue following the revolutionary path he laid out nearly 50 years ago.

"The one scenario that could be a nightmare for the Cubans would be if Raul dies suddenly before Fidel, and Fidel doesn't have the capacity to govern," said Frank Mora, a Cuba-watcher at the National War College in Washington, D.C. "The military would play a king-maker role, though, and any protests would be crushed."