Cubans Quiet but Curious about New Leader

HAVANA — A few blocks from Havana's famed seaside walk, the Malecon, couples stroll hand in hand in the cool evening breeze. Children jabber as they rush to an ice cream stand, while nearby an elderly lady peddles popcorn in plastic bags to teens and toddlers.

All seems calm here, but the soft wind blowing in from the Florida Straits carries a hint of change across Cuba. After nearly 50 years of Fidel Castro's unwavering hand, Cuba's National Assembly will name a new leader Sunday, setting this communist island on what could become an unfamiliar course.

A bookseller hawking stained pamphlets of Castro's famous speeches swears nothing in Cuba has changed, despite last week's announcement that Castro was retiring.

"Fidel's ideas will live forever because they are the words of the poor against the rich," he says, declining like many here to give his name to a stranger. "Cuba was at peace Tuesday morning when he retired, and the streets will remain calm."

But it is clear that the news of impending change at the top after so many years has stirred a deep curiosity among the Cuban people.

Most expect the new leader will be Raul Castro, 76, Fidel's younger brother and designated successor, who has ruled since the elder Castro, 81, fell ill with intestinal bleeding 19 months ago.

Some believe the post-Fidel era began then, and many are relieved the transition wasn't marked by street protests or uncertainty about who is in charge.

But others profess to cautious optimism, saying they can't help but feel intrigued as they watch a new chapter in their nation's history unfold.

"Everyone knows it will be Raul, there's no doubt about that," said Tony Gomez, a taxi driver. "But the people are waiting with curiosity. They have a feeling there will be changes. Cuba is a country rich in spirit and beauty and climate, but the economic situation is difficult. Raul knows that. The people want better living conditions. They hope this will come."

Those economic problems will be a big challenge for Cuba's new leadership. Salaries are low, with many professionals, including doctors and scientists, earning $15 to $20 a month. Many professionals have left their fields to find jobs in the tourism industry because it gives them access to tips that can double or triple their income.

This creates tensions with Cubans stuck in low-paying jobs, whose earnings are often barely enough to feed their families, despite the state rations they receive.

In a country where only a tiny handful of people can afford cars, many also complain about the dilapidated public transportation system. Ancient buses belching black smoke stay jammed with commuters heading to school or work, and government efforts to replace the fleet with new vehicles purchased from China are only beginning to relieve the stain on the system.

There is a shortage of housing and many of the older homes and apartments are in disrepair from decades of neglect. Roads and other infrastructure need major improvements, and the electrical grid in recent years has been prone to blackouts and rationing that leaves some neighborhoods without power for long periods.

The triumphs of Castro's revolution are now a distant memory for most. Aging billboards still feature propaganda slogans, such as "Socialism or death," or "Together toward victory," but on some the paint is faded and peeling and the messages hollow for people hungry for higher-paying jobs and more opportunity.

Fidel Castro has proved to be one of the modern world's most durable leaders, surviving an ill-fated invasion by American-backed Cuban exiles, the Cuban Missile Crisis when Russia attempted to station nuclear-tipped rockets on Cuban soil, and hundreds of CIA-plotted assassination attempts, Cuban historians insist.

For decades he held his island of 11 million people together largely by force of his own will, cajoling and exhorting his people to sacrifice for the greater common good. He also relied on a heavy-handed secret police operation that stifles almost all dissent.

But with Castro's generation now passing from the scene, younger Cubans are by necessity taking over. Some 60 percent of the population is younger than 35, their knowledge of the 1959 Revolution's triumphs coming from textbooks and the state's ubiquitous propaganda rather than direct experience.

On Havana's streets, young men linger in the tourist districts looking for easy marks, sidling up to offer black-market cigars and rum or helpful directions to nearby bars or restaurants. These youths see the wealth so nonchalantly spent by the foreigners who now flock to Cuba and help keep its economy afloat, and many clearly want it for themselves.

"It's time for change," said Angel, a tall youth in a baseball cap who wouldn't give his last name. "The new leader will be Carlos Lage, because Cuba is ready for the new generation."

Lage, Cuba's vice president and architect of the economic reforms in the early 1990s that rescued Cuba's economy after the collapse of its longtime sponsor, the Soviet Union, is high on the list of many Cuba-watchers who speculate that the National Assembly may choose a surprise new leader.

But Lage, like Raul Castro, has promised to remain steadfastly on the socialist path. Cuba's new leadership is expected to experiment with reforms aimed at easing the daily struggle most Cubans face, but few believe they will hazard a radical break with the powerful system that has become entrenched here over the past five decades.

"The state pays us pensions, but it's never enough," said an 82-year-old woman who gave only her first name, Dahlia. She made her living as a cleaning lady and in retirement sells popcorn on the streets to supplement her meager income of about $12 a month. "I cannot say what will happen, but there are people here who are hungry."

Yet other Cubans refuse to complain.

"Everything is calm in Cuba," said Raul Torres Rodriquez, who sells small exotic wooden figures he carves in a tree-shaded park a few blocks from the Malecon. "I know the eyes of the world are on Cuba now, but nobody fears what will come."