Eyes on Tight Democratic Race in Wisconsin

WAUSAU, Wisc. — The eyes of Texas (and Ohio) will be on the Democratic primary Tuesday in Wisconsin, a state that historically has played an outsized role in picking American presidents.

Although Hawaii and the state of Washington will also be voting Tuesday, Wisconsin's primary is the last major contest before a much-anticipated showdown between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Texas and Ohio on March 4.

Consequently, the results here will likely be analyzed thoroughly by the Obama and Clinton camps to determine what adjustments are needed before the pivotal voting follows two weeks later, including contests in Rhode Island and Vermont.

Obama expects to do well here. Wisconsin's primary is open, and Republicans and independents can vote in the Democratic contest. And Obama has always done well in states with open primaries.

But Wisconsin is a diverse state, with significant numbers of working-class voters in urban centers such as Milwaukee and in smaller cities, such as Wausau, with a manufacturing and industrial base.

Clinton, seeking to slow Obama's momentum before the voting in Texas and Ohio, campaigned here on the eve of the state's primary, hitting strongly on economic populist themes during a visit to the Wausau Labor Temple.

"The American middle class needs a strong labor movement," she said. "I look at what goes on every day and say, 'Americans can do so much better — starting with what you do tomorrow.'"

Earlier in the day, the Clinton campaign released a 13-page "economic blueprint" to create new jobs, end the housing crisis and revive the manufacturing sector.

With a comfortable lead in most recent polls and the backing of much of the state party establishment, Obama spent most of Monday in Ohio before planning an evening rally at Beloit College in Beloit. His wife, Michelle, acted as a campaign surrogate for him most of the day in Wisconsin.

But a new American Research Group poll suggests the voting in Wisconsin could be closer than expected. The poll showed Clinton with 49 percent, Obama with 43 percent and 7 percent undecided.

"It's tighter than a tick," Democratic analyst Peter Fenn said of the Democratic contest in Wisconsin.

The Democratic contest here this year has overshadowed the Republican primary, largely because Arizona Sen. John McCain is the party's presumptive nominee.

Even so, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, McCain's only remaining rival for the GOP nomination, continued to make the case for his candidacy Monday with a rally in Appleton, just hours before McCain was to speak at a Lincoln Day dinner in the same town.

On Sunday night, Huckabee went bowling in South Side Milwaukee, telling reporters that he hoped Wisconsin residents would "vote their convictions Tuesday" and ignore the "growing chorus" of the GOP establishment wanting him to quit the race.

Former President George H.W. Bush, the father of the current president, joined that chorus Monday, endorsing McCain.

"No one is better prepared to lead our nation at these trying times than Senator John McCain," Bush told reporters in Houston as McCain stood at his side.

McCain, looking ahead to the general election, responded by noting that Republicans need to draw on a broad base of voters to keep the White House.

"We as a party must unite and move forward and attract not only members of our own party but independents and so-called Reagan Democrats," McCain said.

The Democratic race for Wisconsin's 74 delegates has grown intense in the last few days. An Obama victory would bring to nine his number of consecutive victories over Clinton and add to his slim delegate lead. A Clinton win would give her a much-needed shot in the arm before Texas and Ohio.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, acknowledged as much in a conference call with reporters. "They're contesting it ferociously," he said of the Clinton campaign. "I believe they think they can win it and that's what they're trying to do."

Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson, in his conference call with reporters, continued to insist that the Clinton camp is concentrating on Texas and Ohio. But Wolfson raised the level of criticism of Obama, charging that his eloquent speeches mask a lack of substance and include lines borrowed from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, an Obama supporter.

"If you're going to talk about the value of words, the words should be your own," Wolfson said.

At a news conference in Niles, Ohio, Obama acknowledged trading ideas with Patrick and borrowing language from each other. He noted that Clinton had occasionally borrowed language from him. "I really don't think this is too big of a deal," he said.

But in the contest for the 1988 Democratic nomination, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden ended his candidacy amid accusations that he had used the rhetoric of British politician Neil Kinnock without attribution.

The Clinton campaign posted videotapes on YouTube.com to illustrate the similarities in Obama's and Patrick's speeches.

One of the tapes shows Obama, in a recent address to a Wisconsin audience, rebutting Clinton's oft-repeated charge that he is long on rhetoric and short on policy specifics: "Don't tell me words don't matter," he says. " 'I have a dream' - just words? 'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all mean are created equal' - just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' - just words? Just speeches?"

During his 2006 race for governor, Patrick used similar language: "'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal' - just words? Just words. 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' - just words? 'Ask not what our country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country' - just words? 'I have a dream' - just words?"

Wisconsin has been widely credited with inventing the presidential primary process in 1903 and has played a critical role in presidential politics throughout its history, especially on the Democratic side.

The state gave a crucial boost to John Kennedy in 1960, helped Lyndon Johnson decide to drop out of the race in 1968, pushed Jimmy Carter ahead of Mo Udall in 1976 and chose Bill Clinton over Jerry Brown in 1992.