Texas Basks in Rare Presidential Primary Spotlight

WASHINGTON — Texas lawmakers resisted the urge last year when other states scrambled to set earlier dates for their primaries in order to grab greater importance in picking presidential nominees.

For Texans tired of years of having little to no say in the process, it may be the best thing their legislators never did.

And for the first time in a long time, the nomination battles are alive and kicking as the campaigns rumble into Texas for a March 4 primary that looms large in the historic campaign.

By then (with early voting starting Tuesday), 38 states and the District of Columbia will have weighed in and reduced the Democratic field to Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York, and the GOP field to Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

Somewhat suddenly, "We're No. 40," a very un-Texan battle cry, sounds pretty good, as candidates trumpet the state's importance.

The candidates with momentum (Obama and McCain) see Texas as the state that could help seal the deal or, at least offer a significant step toward nomination. Voters in Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island also vote on March 4.

On the GOP side, Huckabee and Paul are counting on Texans helping them in their longer-than-long-shot efforts to prevent McCain, also a three-time winner last Tuesday, from getting the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Obama is counting on Texas, particularly its young voters and black voters, to continue the impressive momentum he has built in recent contests, including last week's Maryland/Virginia/District of Columbia sweep.

"We expect Texas will have a significant say in who the Democratic nominee for president will be," said Obama spokesman Josh Earnest. "It clearly is an advantage for our campaign to be headed into Texas with what we expect to be some pretty good momentum."

For Clinton, neck-and-neck with Obama in the delegate race but decidedly on the short end of momentum, Texas has become a must-win. She's counting on the coalition she's put together in states she's won, including women, older voters and Hispanics. That coalition was shaken last Tuesday when Obama prevailed among Hispanics in Virginia. Obama also cut into Clinton's support among older voters, taking 58 percent of the 60-64-year-olds and 55 percent of voters over 65.

Clinton signaled Texas' importance by showing up in El Paso last Tuesday as Obama was completing his sweep.

"Oh, it is so wonderful to be here," she told a cheering, heavily Hispanic crowd.

She reminisced about coming to Texas in 1972 on behalf of presidential candidate George McGovern to register voters, including many along the Mexican border.

"Well here I am back in Texas, and I'm asking the children of those voters to vote for me for their future," she said.

A few days earlier, at her Arlington, Va., campaign headquarters, Clinton said, "I think it's going to be a lot of fun campaigning (in Texas), lots of Mexican food and, you know, good times."

Good times, and, according to Clinton strategist Mark Penn, "absolutely critical for us."

On the GOP side, McCain has a huge lead in the delegate count and Texas could bring help bring him close to the 1,191 needed for victory.

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said McCain has to get only 70 delegates in Texas to consider it a good day, one that - combined with results in the three other March 4 races - could put McCain over the top. To that end, McCain may concentrate on selected congressional districts where he has the best shot at picking up delegates, Davis said.

"You can slice and dice the state up a little bit by congressional district," he said. "I'd rather it be winner-take-all overall because I think we can drive a bigger popular vote no matter what. But we're happy to slice it up."

Huckabee, who lived in Fort Worth from December 1975 through January 1980, when he went to seminary and then worked for evangelist James Robison, says he understands Texas "a whole lot better than anyone else running."

"It's a very conservative state," he said. "It's pro-life, it's pro-family, it's a state where people want limited government. They want border security. There are a lot of issues where I feel like I'm far more in sync with the people of Texas, particularly in the Republican Party, than anybody else."

But Huckabee knows that top state Republicans – including Gov. Rick Perry and Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn – are now in sync with McCain. Huckabee downplayed those endorsements as kind words from people who "now perceive that (McCain's) the inevitable winner, and they just want to make sure that they're there, too."

The GOP primary math is simpler than the Democratic math, with the latter making it potentially difficult for Obama or Clinton to come away with a huge delegate edge.

The process for parceling out its 228 Democratic delegates could continue the ongoing story line in the race: Someone wins, someone loses, nobody gains a significant edge in the chase for the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination.

It's political math that led Obama spokesman Earnest to offer this answer when asked if either candidate can come away with a "significant" victory: "It depends, to paraphrase Bill Clinton, on what your definition of 'significant' is," he said.

Here's the math:

Texas Democrats divide up delegates in a multi-part process that actually allows folks to vote twice, once at the ballot box and once at precinct conventions after the polls close.

The statewide vote – the tally that will capture the most attention – has nothing to do with awarding of delegates. What counts, at least for 126 of the delegates, are results in the 31 state senatorial districts.

The number of delegates available in each district is based on total votes for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell in 2006. Most districts have three or four delegates. One has two. One (the one represented by Austin Democrat Kirk Watson) has eight.

Each candidate who gets at least 15 percent of the votes in a senatorial district gets some delegates.

The evening precinct conventions start the process for awarding 67 additional delegates. The remaining 35, bringing the total to 228, are so-called superdelegates (elected officials, party officials and party activists).

The GOP process does not require an accountant, but there is a twist in the way it parcels out its 140 delegates. It's winner-take-all, but only if the winner gets more than half the votes.

If that doesn't happen, it becomes proportional, with all candidates who get at least 20 percent of the votes getting some delegates.

One other twist on the GOP side: Forty-one delegates are awarded based on the statewide vote. The rest, save for three slots reserved for party officials, are awarded based on total votes in each of the state's 32 congressional districts. (That's the 32 congressional districts, as opposed to the 31 state senatorial districts used by Democrats.)

Each congressional district has three GOP delegates to award.

So when was the last time Texas mattered in picking presidential nominees?

In 1988, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush effectively wrapped up the GOP nomination – one he probably was destined to get anyway – by defeating Pat Robertson in Texas.

In 1976, Ronald Reagan's challenge of President Ford got a hefty boost with a Texas win but did not prevent Ford from eventually getting the nomination and losing to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

On the Democratic side, Bill Clinton's 1992 win in Texas helped buoy his bid for the nomination.

But, in all likelihood, those races will pale in money and energy when measured against what Texans are going to see as Obama and Clinton duke it out, and Huckabee tries to use Texas to slow the McCain express.