COX Newspapers Washington Bureau

Obama, McCain Sweep Potomac Primaries


Cox News Service
Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama routed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, sweeping primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia by wide margins and building momentum in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Arizona Sen. John McCain tightened his grip on the Republican nomination with a sweep of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the same contests.

"Today, the change we seek swept through the Chesapeake and across the Potomac," Obama told supporters in Madison, Wis., Tuesday night shortly after television networks declared him the winner in all three Potomac area primaries. And "though we won in Washington, D.C., this movement won't stop until there is change in Washington, D.C.," he added. "The cynics can no longer say our hopes are false."

Indeed, Obama's victories Tuesday gave him a hot streak of eight straight wins over Clinton since their coast-to-coast Super Tuesday confrontation a week ago that ended in a virtual tie between the two remaining Democratic candidates, leaving him with a lead for the first time in the all important contest for elected delegates who will select the party's nominee at its national convention in August. The Associated Press count of delegates showed Obama with 1,210, Clinton with 1,188, neither close to the 2,025 needed to win the nomination, but Obama claiming the mantle of front-runner in the Democratic contest.

Obama, in fact, spoke at length about McCain, not Clinton, in his remarks in Wisconsin, which holds its primary next week, along with voting in Washington state and Hawaii. "Understand this: John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, is an American hero. And we honor his service to our nation ... but his priorities don't address the real problems of the American people because they are bound to the failed policies of the past."

On the GOP side, McCain took a relatively narrow win over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Virginia, a contest that served as another reminder that McCain has work to do among GOP conservatives he needs on his team in November.

"He certainly keeps things interesting, maybe a little too interesting at times tonight, I must confess," McCain, referring to Huckabee, told supporters in Alexandria, Va., late Tuesday.

McCain won by much larger margins in Maryland and the District of Columbia.

The nine-point win in Virginia, a winner-take-all contest, gave McCain another 60 delegates on a day when he drew to within about 250 of the 1,191 needed for nomination. In Maryland, McCain was headed for a huge share of the 37 delegates eligible on Tuesday. The District of Columbia win gave him 16 delegates.

"John McCain will be the Republican nominee for president," Rick Davis, his campaign manager, said after the Virginia win, adding that McCain "will continue to run on his core conservative principles."

Indeed, McCain spoke like a nominee Tuesday night, focusing heavily on the general election.

"We do not yet know for certain who will have the honor of being the Democratic Party's nominee for president," McCain said. "But we know where either of their candidates will lead this country, and we dare not let them."

Either Democrat, McCain said, would offer "an empty promise of 'trust me, I know better.'"

The Virginia victory put McCain's campaign back on track after Saturday losses to Huckabee in Kansas and Louisiana, and a narrow victory in Washington caucuses that began the delegate selection process in that state.

The Saturday contests were the first after former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney dropped out after disappointing results for him on Super Tuesday last week.

Next up for the Republicans are next Tuesday's primaries in Wisconsin and Washington. Fifty-one percent of Washington's delegates will be allocated in the primary. The rest will be awarded through the caucus process that began last Saturday.

The tight race in Virginia highlighted – again – the problem McCain has with conservatives. Sixty-eight percent of voters in Virginia's GOP primary voters labeled themselves as conservatives. Fifty-one percent of them backed Huckabee, only 35 percent sided with McCain.

A third of the voters called themselves "very conservative." Seventy-five percent of them voted for Huckabee, only 23 percent sided with McCain.

Perhaps the most positive number for McCain in the Virginia exit polls was the 75 percent who said they'd be "satisfied" with the Arizona senator as the GOP nominee.

In a possible measure of the difference between a Virginia conservative and a Maryland conservative, McCain prevailed by a 43 percent to 36 percent margin among the 62 percent of Maryland GOP voters who called themselves conservatives.

Huckabee's strong Virginia showing was fueled by a heavy turnout of evangelicals, who made up 40 percent of the GOP primary voters, twice what they did in 2004. Seventy percent of evangelicals said they voted Tuesday for Huckabee.

After next week's contests, attention turns to March 4 contests in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Huckabee, at a Tuesday morning breakfast with reporters in Washington, talked in absolutes about staying in the race, not running as a third-party candidate and not seeking a Senate seat from Arkansas.

While acknowledging he is a long shot to get the presidential nomination, Huckabee said he wants to go to the Republican National Convention with enough delegate clout to influence the party platform. He vowed to fight to include support for an anti-abortion amendment in the U.S. Constitution.

Clinton, appearing Tuesday night in El Paso, all but ignored the results from Tuesday's voting, vowing instead to "sweep across Texas in the next three weeks, bringing our message about what we need in America, the kind of president that will be required on day one to be commander-in-chief, to turn the economy around." She added, "I'm tested. I'm ready. Let's make it happen."

Taking aim at President Bush instead of Obama - she declined to offer congratulations to her Democratic rival - she invoked a Texas expression to describe the U.S. economy under the Bush administration. "We need a lot less hat and a lot more cattle," she said. "Texas needs a president who actually understands what it's going to take to turn the economy around, to get us universal health care, to save hardworking Americans' homes from foreclosure at the abusive practices of the mortgage companies."

In Virginia, Obama carried virtually every demographic group, and those he didn't carry, he came close to splitting in half. He won men, 67-32 percent; women, 59-41 percent; whites, 50-49 percent; African Americans, 89-11 percent; Latinos, 53-47 percent; Democrats, 61-39 percent; Republicans, 70-25 percent; independents, 66-32 percent; first-time voters, 71-29 percent, liberals, 60-40 percent; moderates, 64-35 percent; conservatives, 70-27 percent.

Clinton's only demographic success in Virginia was her 54-45 percent win among white women.

Obama, on the other hand, won every age group in Virginia, including the elderly voters who have stood by Clinton in previous contests. Virginians 60 and older voted 54-46 percent for Obama. He won every income group, many by a 2-1 margin. He also won every religious group. And on the question of who is the most qualified to be commander-in-chief, an area that has also been a strength for Clinton in previous contests, Obama was preferred by Virginians, 55-43 percent.

The exit polls in Maryland mirrored those in Virginia. And in both states, some eight in 10 voters agreed that the United States is probably ready to elect a black or a woman president.

There were no exit polls in the District of Columbia.

In Maryland, Obama won men, 67-31 percent; women, 59-38 percent; African Americans, 88-11 percent; Latinos, 53-47 percent; Democrats, 62-37 percent; independents, 68-24 percent; liberals, 60-39 percent; moderates, 66-31 percent; conservatives, 57-31 percent. He lost whites to Clinton but by a decreasing margin, 51-46 percent. He also lost white women to Clinton, 55-42 percent.

The Potomac defeats came amid new signs of stress in the Clinton campaign: her deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, the field architect, stepped down Tuesday. He was brought on board last year by Patti Solis Doyle, who was replaced as campaign manager by longtime Clinton friend Maggie Williams on Saturday.