Immigration Projected to Drive U.S. Population Growth to 438 Million in 2050

WASHINGTON — The U.S. population will reach 438 million in 2050, with 82 percent of the growth coming from immigrants and their U.S.-born descendants, a study released Monday projected.

During the next half century, the Latino and Asian populations will triple and the non-Hispanic white population will grow by 4 percent, said the study by the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan group in Washington.

Hispanics, already the nation's largest minority group, will comprise 29 percent of the total population by 2050, compared to 14 percent currently, it said.

Non-Hispanic whites will comprise 47 percent of the population, African-Americans will account for 13 percent, and Asian Americans 9 percent.

Altogether, nearly one in five Americans will be foreign-born in 2050, compared with one in eight in 2005.

The total population projection is higher than a previous calculation by the U.S. Census Bureau, which projected 420 million people by 2050.

Jeffrey S. Passel, a senior research associate at the Pew Hispanic Center who co-authored the report, said that it assumes larger immigration projections than the government calculation.

The Pew study projects that immigration will add 117 million people to the U.S. population by 2050. Of those, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their American-born children and grandchildren. Between 2020 and 2025, the foreign-born share of the population will surpass the peak during the last great wave of immigration a century ago, it projects.

The study does not distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants. The Census Bureau, which provides information for such studies, does not ask people their legal status.

The Pew study also looked at the nation's "dependency ratio" — the number of children and elderly compared with the number of working-age Americans.

This figure is projected to change dramatically because of the aging Baby Boomers, the generation of Americans born between 1946 and 1964.

In 2005, there were 59 children and elderly people for every 100 working age adults. In 2050, the number will increase to 72 children and elderly people for every 100 working age adults.

Immigrant advocates said that immigrants will be needed desperately to support the growing elderly population.

"A great nation will find it difficult to remain great if it is aging and shrinking," said Frank Sharry, executive director of the National Immigration Forum.

But advocates of lower levels of immigration said that the study is a warning of where the current government policy on immigration will lead.

"Do we want an America that has 100 million people more than it would without any immigration starting from today?" said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank. "A hundred million more people means 80 million more cars, 40 million more homes. ... We need to decide, are the costs of that worth it in quality of life?"

It also projected:

— Births in the United States will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth. As a result, a smaller proportion of both groups will be foreign-born in 2050 than currently.

— The number of children in the United States will increase from 73 million in 2005 to 102 million in 2050.

On the Web:

Pew Hispanic Center: www.pewhispanic.org