Clinton Holds Big Advantage with Latino Voters

WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Clinton made an impressive showing with Latino voters on Super Tuesday, giving her strong support in New York, New Jersey and New Mexico and helping to deliver to her the grand prize of California, despite a strong push by Sen. Barack Obama to woo Latino voters in that delegate-rich state.

Exit polls showed that 73 percent, 68 percent and 56 percent of Hispanics in those first three states, respectively, supported her. In California, she won 69 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to Obama's 29 percent.

Political analysts say that Obama can overcome Clinton's advantage with Hispanic voters with aggressive outreach efforts. The upcoming Texas primary — where Latinos represent one-fourth of eligible voters — will be a major test of this theory. Both camps are expected to campaign hard in the state since they ended up in a virtual tie after Tuesday's contests.

In Arlington, Va., ahead of that state's Feb. 12 primary, Clinton noted that her first job in politics was registering voters in south Texas in 1972 alongside Hispanic civic activists like Raul Yzaguirre, one of the founders of the non-profit National Council of La Raza.

"So my relationships in the Hispanic community are very broad and very deep, and people know me, and they know what I've done to really try to solve the problems and produce results for Hispanic Americans, in health care, in education, in the economy," she told reporters.

Thomas Mann, a senior political analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that Obama will improve his position with intensive campaigning and visibility. "He will no doubt work hard to reduce her advantage with this key voting group in Texas," he said.

Mann said that Obama's support from Latinos in his home state of Illinois and in Arizona prove that his outreach efforts could pay off.

In Illinois, Obama received half of the Latino vote and in Arizona, he received 41 percent, although Clinton won that state.

On Wednesday, Obama said that his campaign made "enormous progress" with Latino voters, also citing Arizona.

"As Latino voters get to know me, we do better," he said.

Cecilia Munoz, vice president for policy at the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic civil rights organization, said that Clinton's popularity with Latinos is tied to the popularity of her husband, former president Bill Clinton.

"Sen. Clinton's advantage with Latino voters has to do with the fact that they are really familiar with her and have a positive view of the Clinton administration's record," Munoz said.

John J. Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California, agreed, but added several other factors, including Clinton's longtime emphasis on "lunch bucket" economic issues.

"Aside from African Americans, Obama tends to appeal to more affluent voters. Clinton appeals to people who are struggling. Unfortunately, many Latinos are struggling," he said.

In addition, Pitney said that Obama "has had to grapple with long-standing political friction between African Americans and Latinos" in California and other states where they sometimes compete for political influence.

"Obama's best chance to improve his Latino showing is to focus advertising and outreach on younger voters," Pitney said.

Mark Penn, chief strategist for the Clinton campaign, said that her strong showing with Latinos on Super Tuesday bodes well for the general election.

In 2004, women between 50-64 years old and the Latino community were the two critical swing groups that swung away from the Democrats, he said, in a conference call with reporters. But through the primary process, these groups have been giving very strong support to Sen. Clinton, he added.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona fared well with Latino voters, who also helped him win a key victory in Florida last month.

In California, McCain received 35 percent of Latino votes, compared to 20 percent for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 19 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. McCain won the state.

Jerry Polinard, a professor of political science at the University of Texas-Pan American, said that McCain would likely win the majority of Latino GOP votes in the March 4 Texas primary. About 30 to 40 percent of Hispanics in Texas vote Republican, he said.

"McCain certainly would be favored to take the lion's share of that because, of the three candidates, he has the softest stand on immigration," Polinard said. "It hurts him with his party base but it helps him with the Latino vote."

In the Democratic contest, Clinton has a strong advantage with Latino voters in Texas because President Bill Clinton was very popular and visited the state several times, Polinard said. In addition, he said that Hillary Clinton has also made trips to the state and has strong ties with the local political players.

"In a Texas primary, Mexican-American voters have a very strong impact," he said. "That's increasing virtually every year."

In the 2004 Texas Democratic primary, about 36 percent of voters were Hispanic, according to pollster Jeff Smith with Opinion Analysts, Inc. in Austin.

Nathan Gonzeles, an analyst at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, agreed that Clinton has a big advantage among Latinos in Texas and predicted that the candidates will work hard for every vote.

"Texas is a big prize," he said. "Both candidates are going to be spending time, energy, resources, and money to win as many delegates as possible — and that includes reaching out to the Hispanic community."

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