Key West Wary over Chances of Cuba Opening

KEY WEST, Fla. — For decades tour guides have successfully hyped this town's close proximity and historic ties to Cuba, playing up the Cuban cigar factories that once thrived here, author Ernest Hemingway's fascination with both islands and a shared history of fishing, rum-running and other tropical pursuits.

But now Key West's much-ballyhooed connection with Cuba has some folks worried.

With Cuban dictator Fidel Castro ailing and a U.S. presidential election looming, many speculate that change, perhaps dramatic, might soon surface in the half-century old standoff between the United States and communist Cuba.

"Americans are going to be so curious and are going to want to go to Cuba," said Harold Wheeler, head of the Monroe County Tourist Development Council. "I don't see it as a threat but you have to be prepared and have a plan available to offset any potential negative impacts."

Should Cuba undergo radical, rapid change, Key West could see anything from a chaotic influx of Cuban-Americans hoping to make their way by boat to Cuba to a sudden drop in vital tourist bookings as Americans flock to the long-forbidden island, forgoing more familiar domestic destinations.

A 2002 study by the University of Colorado projected that up to 1 million Americans would visit Cuba in the first year should the island open to the United States with the numbers leaping to some 3 million within five years. Another study found one in five Florida tourists surveyed in 2002 would choose Cuba over Florida as a vacation destination.

For now, though, those surveys are simply speculation.

Sidelined by a long recuperation from a mysterious stomach ailment, Fidel Castro still seems to exercise large influence in Cuba. His brother, Raul, who has stepped in as temporary leader, remains committed to socialism, but has spoken of economic reform and a willingness to warm the island's currently frosty relations with the United States.

A new American president in 2009 will not guarantee any change in the nearly five-decade-old U.S. embargo against Cuba. Some believe a new Democratic administration might relax the restrictions on travel to Cuba by U.S. citizens, although nothing is certain.

During the Clinton administration in the 1990s, Americans were allowed to visit Cuba on cultural and educational exchange trips, and tens of thousands took advantage of the opportunity.

But those exchanges were severely curtailed by President Bush, and in recent years a handful of Americans who have traveled without a U.S. license to visit Cuba have been fined. Bush also cut back on Cuban-American visits to the island, allowing only one trip every three years instead of annual visits.

Miami's politically powerful Cuban-American lobby has long supported the restrictions, arguing that American tourist dollars help prop up Castro's repressive regime.

But government officials have not been sitting on their hands waiting to see what happens in Cuba. Stung by chaos during the 1980 Mariel boatlift, when 125,000 refugees fled the Cuban port near Havana and overwhelmed South Florida's marinas and social service agencies, federal, state and local agencies have drawn up elaborate plans to deal with a sudden Cuba opening.

The U.S. Coast Guard would step up patrols across the Straits of Florida, while law enforcement officials on land would increase traffic controls and regulate access to marinas.

The Keys, meanwhile, would embark on a public relations campaign with the dual purpose of assuring American tourists that the island chain was still open and ready for their visits, while also proposing that Americans might want to use Key West as a jumping off point for trips to Cuba, just 90 miles away.

"I call it, 'Two nations, one vacation, the Keys plus Cuba,'" Wheeler said, noting that he believes private ferry service might quickly be established between Havana and Key West. "People could stay here and do excursions to Cuba."

Wheeler and other Keys officials visited Havana in 2005. They came away believing the communist island's poverty and dilapidated infrastructure might quickly turn off many Americans.

"They have some nice hotels, but overall you're impressed by how poor the country is and how bad a shape the economy and infrastructure is in," he said. "I believe after the first Americans visited, word-of-mouth would spread that Cuba isn't ready for a large influx of Americans."

Some Canadians and Europeans, who have flocked to Cuba in growing numbers in the past two decades, might disagree. With more than 2 million annual visitors, Cuba has been rapidly upgrading its tourism base, importing luxury buses, adding international flights and rebuilding hotels. Tourism is now the island's economic lifeline, and competition with other Caribbean destinations is intense.

But for all the speculation, some longtime Key West residents say they fear little from a Cuba opening, noting that Key West has changed a great deal in recent years.

"Key West is high-end now," said Jerry Morgan, 72, who has lived here for 30 years and runs Sam's Treasure Chest gift shop. "We have a shortage of hotel rooms and a lot of wealthy people have moved here or have second homes here. Tourism is still important, but Cuba won't hurt us."