McCain Dominates as Clinton and Obama Trade States
Cox News Service
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
WASHINGTON — Arizona Sen. John McCain took command of the Republican presidential campaign with primary and caucus victories from one coast to the other Tuesday, including the biggest prize of the night, California, likely a crushing blow for former Massachusetts Sen. Mitt Romney, who plans to reassess his candidacy on Wednesday.
But New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama swapped a patchwork of victories, leaving both Democrats claiming momentum in the bid for their party's nomination despite Clinton's victory in the California Democratic primary, the most sought-after victory of the day. She won the state on the strength of support from women, 55-39 percent over Obama, and Hispanics, 65-34 percent over her rival.
McCain, in a speech to supporters in his home state of Arizona before the results in California were known, flatly declared himself "the front-runner," adding: "I don't mind it a bit."
Romney, who had staked his future on a victory in California, plans to meet with his top aides in Boston on Wednesday to discuss whether to continue his bid for the GOP nomination.
Neither Clinton nor Obama declared themselves the Democratic front-runner, both choosing to appear before supporters before the polls closed in California. Clinton noted Americans were voting "not just to make history but to remake America." And Obama said, "Our time has come. Our movement is real. And change is coming to America."
Because Democrats distribute delegates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts, it appeared that neither Democrat would emerge from their 22-state Super Tuesday with enough national convention delegates to claim the party's nomination. Even the delegate split in California could end up close despite Clinton's victory.
More than half of the delegates to the Democratic convention in August will be apportioned in Tuesday's voting. The split results in this contest means it is likely the grueling nominating race will continue in the coming weeks.
In contrast, many of the 21 Republican contests are winner-take-all when awarding delegates, which allowed McCain to take a commanding lead, with early victories states loaded with delegates, including Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. He followed up with victories in Oklahoma, his home state of Arizona and the swing state of Missouri.
Despite McCain's victories, the Republican contest reflected a regional split in the GOP, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee winning in Georgia, West Virginia, Alabama, Tennessee and his home state, in part on the strength of support from evangelicals, a key part of the GOP base. Huckabee won 33 percent of the evangelical vote, Romney got 31 percent, but McCain got 30 percent, despite the fact that he has long been unpopular among religious conservatives.
Huckabee, in a series of television interviews, denied that he is working in concert with McCain to deny Romney conservative voters. "Every time we win something, somebody tries to figure out a way to explain it away," he said on CNN. "Truth is, people voted for me."
The Republican split prompted conservative activist Richard Viguerie to issue a statement suggesting it is time for McCain to reach out to conservatives "before it is too late."
"The ball is in Senator McCain's court," Viguerie said. "For years, he has made himself the adversary of conservatives. Now he must take the initiative in reaching out."
McCain was the winner among Republicans who described themselves as moderates, while Romney led among Republicans who called themselves conservatives. But Huckabee pulled away enough conservatives from Romney to allow McCain to cruise to victories outside the South, with the exception of Romney's home state victory in Massachusetts.
Romney, a devout Mormon, also won Utah, which has a large Mormon population. He also won Minnesota, Montana, Colorado and North Dakota.
Democratic voters expressed the most concern about the economy in response to questions from exit pollsters, half of them citing it as the most important issue facing the country, compared to 30 percent who cited the war in Iraq. And Clinton led among voters concerned about the economy, while Obama won those concerned about the war.
About a third of the Republican electorate said they are against making abortion illegal. Those voters overwhelmingly chose McCain over Romney, 50 percent to 30 percent — despite the fact McCain has a consistent pro-life record in the Senate
Republican voters had a much rosier view of the economy, with nearly four in 10 describing it as good. And Romney was the choice among Republicans with such a view of the economy. He also was favored by Republicans concerned about illegal immigration. But McCain led among those who cared about the economy, terrorism and the war in Iraq.
Clinton piled up early victories in the northeast, including the delegate-rich states of New Jersey and her home state of New York, and in the southern states of Oklahoma, Tennessee and her onetime home state of Arkansas, prompting claims that the former first lady can compete in the so-called "red states" that Obama argues he can make competitive in the general election.
She also pulled off an early surprise, winning decisively in Massachusetts, a state where Obama had the backing of such luminaries as Sen. Edward Kennedy; Sen. John Kerry, the party's 2004 presidential nominee; and Gov. Patrick Duval. Fifty-three percent of the voters in Massachusetts told exit pollsters that Kennedy's endorsement, hyped by the news media, had no importance in the contest.
But Obama also scored important southern victories, in Georgia and Alabama, to counter the Clinton claims.
On the important question of change, around which Obama has built his campaign, Democratic voters by a 2-1 margin said they preferred a candidate capable of bringing political change to the country over a candidate with political experience.
Democrats voters split along racial and gender lines, according to exit polls. Clinton carried 51 percent of women compared to 45 for Obama, while Obama got 53 percent of men and Clinton 42 percent. Among blacks, Obama was the choice of 80 percent, Clinton 17 percent. And while Clinton got 51 percent of white voters, Obama got 44 percent, nearly double the percentage he received in earlier presidential contests.
In Georgia, for example, Obama surged to victory with heavy support from black voters, but also scored about 40 percent of the white vote.
Exit polls showed Clinton winning six in 10 Hispanics, a key constituency in the western states. And in the first western contest, in Arizona, she won handily over Obama. The Hispanic vote also helped propel Clinton to the most sought after victory in California.