Super Tuesday Sparking Various Election Strategies

WASHINGTON — This Super Tuesday will be even more super than previous Super Tuesdays.

From sunrise in several East Coast states through sunset in California, Americans will trek to polling places and caucuses in a patchwork of 24 states holding contests that could go a long way toward deciding the presidential nominees.

In a political year already packed with surprises, the most probable Tuesday outcome could be one unforeseen not long ago when Hillary Clinton seemed fast-tracked to the Democratic nomination and the GOP race appeared headed for a protracted, divisive battle.

"A few months ago, conventional wisdom was that the Democratic race would settle quickly and that the GOP race would drag on, leaving a battered and doomed party," said John Pitney, a Claremont McKenna College political scientist. "Now it looks as if the Republicans will settle quickly while the Democrats must confront the possibility of division and defeat."

On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama are locked in a state-by-state, delegate-by-delegate battle in Super Tuesday contests more likely than not to be indecisive.

The winner – and winning could be subject to interpretation – "will be perceived as having won the coin flip heading into an overtime session before we know who will be going to the general election Super Bowl," said Democratic consultant Chris Lehane.

On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain, once given up as politically DOA, is looking for a contest-ending kill while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is struggling to keep the race going beyond Tuesday. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whose early win in Iowa has been followed by an unbroken string of also-ran finishes, is also hoping the race continues, but it would take a parlay of Super Tuesday surprises to push Huckabee back into top-tier territory.

Super Tuesday is not only big, it is complicated, with a head-exploding combination of delegate-selection rules that differ by state and by party.

"It's worse than the liquor laws," said Alex Gage, Romney's strategy director.

Last year, Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted that the Democratic Party "will have a nominee" after the Super Tuesday votes are tallied. But now, the Clinton campaign is preparing for a delegate-by-delegate fight lasting through the March 4 Ohio and Texas contests.

As Super Tuesday approached, Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe said "the picture will be very clear on the morning of Feb. 6 ... (that) there will not be a lot of potential for spin. The facts will be there."

In fact, however, Tuesday's results could be eminently spinable. Is the winner the candidate who gets the most votes? Or is it the candidate who wins the most states? Or is it who has earned the most delegates?

Obama's Super Tuesday strategy, according to Plouffe, targets every state with a contest. The approach is reflected in a TV ad blitz that will hit all but three Super Tuesday states.

Clinton, however, will be on the air in only 12 states, heavily focused on New Jersey, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, California and her home state of New York.

Both campaigns are targeting Hispanic voters with Spanish-language ads, mostly in California and Arizona. Nearly half of all Hispanic voters in the country will be casting ballots Tuesday, and nearly half of the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination are up for grabs.

Both campaigns are also trying to win over the supports of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who dropped out in the wake of last Tuesday's Florida primary.

"These are change voters more than anything else," Plouffe said in staking Obama's claim to Edwards' supporters.

Obama is also counting on the kind of grassroots support that resulted in his victories in Iowa and South Carolina. He got a boost Friday when MoveOn.org's political action arm endorsed his candidacy, the first time in the online organization's history that it has endorsed a presidential candidate. MoveOn has 3.2 million nationwide, 1.7 million in the Super Tuesday states.

But a Clinton adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "Edwards had those blue-collar, pro-union guys who are focused on the economy – and that's who we're going after now."

They are doing so with TV ads pitching Clinton's plan for dealing with a sinking economy. And on election eve, they will air a town hall meeting live on the Hallmark Channel on cable TV.

However, Obama also picked up the backing of the 650,000-member California branch of the Service Employees International Union, which previously backed Edwards.

The Republican story on Super Tuesday could be a comeback tale of major proportions.

At McCain headquarters, once depressed by dwindling money and poll numbers, the talk is about Super Tuesday results that could end the race.

In a game that's all about delegate numbers, McCain's strong position in winner-take-all states — including delegate-rich states such as New York, New Jersey and Missouri — offers a solid foundation for victory.

"We have big leads going in and (last week's Florida) victory will help us maintain those," a McCain strategist said of the big, winner-take-all states.

The effort got a boost when Rudy Giuliani, who also was polling well in those states, bailed out after his poor showing in Florida and endorsed McCain. Getting a sizable share of the Giuliani support could seal McCain victories in some of the winner-take-all states. McCain also expects to prevail in a combination of medium states that could add up to impressive delegate totals.

Missouri could be the most contested winter-take-all GOP contest, with Huckabee, from neighboring Arkansas, a potential factor.

(The winner-take-all states in Tuesday's GOP voting are Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia. Four other states - Alabama, Kansas, North Dakota and Tennessee - become winner-take-all if the top vote-getter meets specified percentages.)

In California, where he already was polling well, McCain got a broad-shouldered boost with the endorsement of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

At Romney headquarters, the talk is of survival.

"We're working toward keeping this a competitive race," Gage said. "We still have won the conservative vote in most of the states. We think states like Kansas, Nebraska, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina ought to be able to have some say."

They won't if it ends Tuesday for Romney, who is not mounting much of an effort in a number of states, including New York, New Jersey and other winner-take-all states, in which McCain is the prohibitive favorite.

"I'd guess you'd say we're writing them off," Gage said.

Atop the Romney strategy are what Gage calls "must-win, should-win" small to mid-size states (Alaska, Montana, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Minnesota, West Virginia and Utah) that hold caucuses.

The goal is 75 percent of the 269 delegates in those states. Anything short of that could be too little for the victory map Romney is trying to craft. Still on the Romney map are California, Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee and Georgia, states in which Gage said "we think we can possibly play in." But by week's end, the campaign was still trying to figure out if it was worth pouring resources into those states, which include several with polls showing McCain surging.

California remains a crucial part of the Romney strategy. He is targeting congressional districts as part of an effort with a high-end goal of capturing half the state's delegates. Biggest upside for Romney in California? Gage says it could be the fact that Huckabee "isn't much of a factor." In other states, Romney believes Huckabee is siphoning away conservative support.

"I think conservatives recognize that a vote for Mike Huckabee right now really means a vote for John McCain," Romney said last week.

That's especially true, Gage said, in Missouri, Illinois and Tennessee, states in which he believes Romney would be competitive in a two-man battle with McCain.

And in the kind of symbolism a struggling candidate hates to endure, Romney had to take time off the campaign trail on Saturday to attend a funeral. He was scheduled to head to Utah for the service for Mormon church President Gordon B. Hinckley.