McCain and Romney Claim GOP Wins, Clinton Edges Obama
Cox News Service
Sunday, January 20, 2008
COLUMBIA, S.C. — John McCain took a major win in the South Carolina GOP primary, Hillary Clinton captured the Nevada Democratic caucuses and Mitt Romney won that state's largely uncontested GOP battle in Saturday balloting that put a bit more focus on the still-muddled races for the presidential nominations.
Clinton's win over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was tempered by a complicated delegate-awarding process that wound up splitting the Nevada delegates with him.
Nevertheless, she called it a win and told supporters in Las Vegas, "I guess this is how the West was won."
With 98 percent of the precincts counted, Clinton had a 51 percent to 45 percent edge over Obama.
McCain's South Carolina win came eight years after his 2000 White House bid effectively ended there when George W. Bush beat him.
"Thank you, South Carolina, for bringing us across the finish line first in the first in the south primary. It took us a while, but what's eight years among friends," he told supporters in Charleston.
With 97 percent of precincts reporting, McCain had 33 percent, three points better than runner-up Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister who couldn't muster the margins he needed among South Carolina evangelicals.
"We wanted to come here and declare a South Carolina victory," Huckabee told supporters in Columbia. "We got awful close. Unfortunately in politics close doesn't count for the first slot, but it does count."
He vowed to fight on as the GOP battle moves to Florida's Jan. 29 primary, which will mark former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's first active participation. Huckabee said "the process is far, far from over."
Some think it might be close to over for Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses on the strength of his heavy support among evangelicals.
Exit polls showed evangelicals made up 59 percent of the South Carolina vote, and they backed Huckabee by a 40-27 margin. But in numbers that show Huckabee's problems in broadening his base, he took only 12 percent of the non-evangelical vote, running fourth behind McCain (40 percent), Romney (21 percent) and Fred Thompson (15 percent).
Voters who said they attended church weekly (62 percent) gave Huckabee only a 38-27 edge over McCain.
Emory University political scientist Merle Black said the numbers show Huckabee's inability to broaden his base.
"This was a big blow to Huckabee. Even though he carried evangelicals, his weakness outside that group really limits his appeal as a potential Republican candidate and he will have, I think, a very hard time in Florida," Black said, calling South Carolina "a big victory for McCain."
It also was a big defeat for Thompson, a former Tennessee senator who came into the race with buzz he could not live up to. His probable third-place finish probably will end his bid.
"I've got to do very well here. I'm not in this to get my face on television or my name in the paper or enhance my resume. I'm not a hanger-oner just for its own sake," he said at a Saturday campaign event as voting continued.
As results came in, he addressed supporters in Columbia but made no comment on his candidacy's future. He spoke in front of signs bearing his slogan, the "clear conservative choice." But exit polls showed he was clearly not the conservatives' choice in South Carolina, where he ran third among the 68 percent of voters who called themselves conservatives.
Romney, who headed to Florida from Nevada, said his Saturday win combined with his Tuesday Michigan victory, was "huge for us."
"If you can win those two states, Michigan and Nevada, it means you put together quite a coalition and have been able to make the kind of inroads you have to make to take the White House," he said in Jacksonville, Fla..
Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with 98 percent of the precincts reporting in Nevada, was headed for his first second-place finish with 14 percent.
Paul ran fifth in South Carolina with 4 percent.
The Paul camp was pleased that he outpolled McCain, Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani in Nevada.
"Ron Paul has once again topped multiple media-anointed 'front-runners' with his poll-defying second place showing in Nevada," said Kent Snyder, Paul's campaign chairman. "We're in this race to win, and we're going to battle for every delegate in this wide-open race for the Republican nomination."
Clinton's Nevada win came after a bruising contest with Obama that included charges of political dirty tricks on both sides. It was Clinton's second straight victory, coming after her New Hampshire win, after a disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.
It sets the stage for South Carolina's Democratic primary next Saturday. The pressure there is on Obama, who is counting on a win in a Democratic electorate that is about 50 percent black. Recent polls give Obama an edge in South Carolina.
Obama, in a statement issued by his campaign, said he ran "an honest, uplifting campaign (in Nevada) ... that appealed to people's hopes instead of their fears." The statement did not offer congratulations to Clinton.
Months ago, it looked like Clinton would coast to an easy victory in Nevada as polls showed her up by as much as 25 points.
But Obama got the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, a powerful force he thought would give him the win.
But Clinton managed a 51-45 percent victory over Obama in Nevada, based largely on support Hispanics, who make up a sizable portion of the state and the union, and women.
Entrance polls showed Obama carried the African-American vote 79 percent-16 percent while Clinton carried Hispanics by a 64 percent-23 percent margin.
Clinton won female voters 52-35 percent and voters over 45 years of age, 54-33 percent. She lost younger voters to Obama, 48-34 percent.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who once counted on Nevada to elevate him from his third-place standing in the Democratic contest, got only 4 percent of the caucus vote.
On the eve of the Nevada balloting, the Clinton camp complained that their backers in unions had been subjected to intimidation from union officials backing Obama. And the Obama camp complained that their supporters were the target of telephone calls that made repeated references to "Barack Hussein Obama." Hussein is Obama's middle name.
Clinton backers went to court in an unsuccessful attempt to block the special casino precincts, which were expected to favor Obama. Clinton ended up winning most of them, however.
Unions backing Obama ran Spanish language ads saying Clinton was behind the court action against the precincts and that the senator "does not respect our people."
The caucuses in the special precincts in nine of the casinos and hotels along Las Vegas' famous Strip reflected the growing tensions between the Clinton and Obama camps.
Clinton supporters wore T-shirts saying, "I Support My Union. I support Hillary." And Obama supporters formed a gauntlet at the entrance of some caucuses, exchanging sometimes heated words with Clinton backers.
In the GOP race, Saturday marked the end of the first phase of the GOP race — a phase in which candidates picked their battles and no contest involved all the major contenders. None of the six included any significant effort by Giuliani.
Although one long-shot candidate did narrow the GOP field — Rep. Duncan Hunter of California withdrew after another disappointing finish — Saturday's Republican results in South Carolina and Nevada added to the scramble amassed by GOP voters around the nation to date.
In Iowa, Huckabee and Romney, the only major candidates who made major efforts, finished first and second. In Wyoming, Romney finished first after being the only candidate who campaigned there.
In New Hampshire, top three finishers McCain, Romney and Huckabee made significant efforts. Michigan native Romney won that state, followed by McCain and Huckabee. They also were the only three candidates who ran hard in Michigan.
In Saturday's contests, McCain, Huckabee and Thompson campaigned hardest in South Carolina, with Romney the only one trekking to Nevada in the closing days.
Florida will be Giuliani's first test, and he has a lot riding on it. He and his team remain confident he will get the nomination despite being off the radar in the four contests prior to Saturday.
But two Texans backing two different candidates differ on whether Giuliani can pull it off.
"Never been an election year like we're in," Gov. Rick Perry, a Giuliani backer, said Friday on Fox News. "There is no clear leader for sure. And the mayor is at the top in Florida, where he wanted to be, where he expected to be."
And, Perry acknowledged, where he needs to be.
"Obviously, he needs to do well in Florida," he said, defining doing well as a top three finish but then adding "I think he's going to win Florida."
Three recent Florida polls showed a bunched-up race. All three showed McCain leading, but with Giuliani (as well as Huckabee and Romney) still in contention.
Former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who traveled with McCain in South Carolina, said Giuliani is counting on a dicey strategy.
"Maybe it is possible after being a nonfactor in all these states to suddenly become a front-running candidate," he said in Florence, S.C. "But it certainly will make history if it happens."
"It's a free country," said Gramm, whose 1996 bid for the GOP presidential nomination died in Iowa. "You can do it however you want to do it. But normally the people who win are the people who start running at the beginning and are still running at the end."
McCain declined to publicly pass judgment on the Giuliani last-man-in strategy.
"I think that every candidate chooses their strategy," he said, "and as a former loser I'm not very good at making those recommendations."