South Carolina, Nevada Could Reshape Presidential Race -- Again

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. — The unlikely duo of Bible-belt South Carolina and almost-anything-goes Nevada take their turns Saturday in what's become the weekly rejiggering of the presidential nomination races.

As in previous states, odds are good that the contests in both parties could look significantly different when the South Carolina GOP primary and the Nevada Democratic and Republican caucuses are over.

On the GOP side, Saturday's balloting will mark the end of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign-in-waiting. Beginning with Florida's Jan. 29 primary, Giuliani becomes a full-fledged participant.

South Carolina offers 24 GOP delegates and the first look at how balloting may go in the South. The state's Democratic primary is next Saturday.

Nevada has 34 GOP and 33 Democratic delegates and provides the first glimpse of Western voting and a strongly Hispanic electorate.

A new poll published Friday by the Las Vegas Review-Journal showed New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with a comfortable 9-point lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the Democratic contest, 41-32 percent, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 14 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.

But a tracking poll by independent pollster John Zogby showed the race to be tighter, with Clinton at 42 percent and Obama at 37 percent, with Edwards a distant 12 percent. That poll's margin of error was 3.4 percentage points.

Zogby's polling also showed that while Obama is leading in Nevada among blacks and younger voters, Clinton is leading among women, whites, older voters, conservatives and, perhaps most importantly, Hispanics.

"This is a very competitive race, but it will depend on organization," Zogby said. "This is a caucus without much history to go on, so we have to see who can do the best job of turning out their votes."

The Review-Journal poll of Nevada Republicans found former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading Arizona Sen. John McCain by 15 points, 34 percent to 19 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Giuliani, the leader in the previous Review-Journal poll, finished sixth in the latest survey, with 6 percent.

In South Carolina, a consensus of public polls show Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose 2000 loss here to George W. Bush effectively ended his bid that year, as the leader. Huckabee is second, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee.

A South Carolina win for McCain, who won in New Hampshire but lost to Romney in Michigan and ran fourth in Iowa, could return to him the front-runner title that has bounced around. A win for Huckabee, who won Iowa but was third in New Hampshire and Michigan, would re-energize his campaign.

For Thompson, who has not seriously competed elsewhere, a win would be a shocker, and a fourth-place finish in a Southern state could end his campaign.

Romney, the favorite in the Nevada GOP caucus, made a major effort in South Carolina before packing it in several days ago as polls showed him lagging. It's all about delegates and Nevada has more of them, Romney said at one of his final South Carolina events before heading to Nevada.

McCain toured South Carolina, which has backed the eventual GOP nominee since starting its primary in 1980, again on Friday.

"This vote tomorrow in this election in South Carolina will most likely determine who wins the nomination and who the next president of the United States is," McCain said.

"I understand the weather is going to be pretty chilly tomorrow so you probably have to put on an extra sweater and go out in the cold," he said in Florence, referring to a Saturday forecast calling for snow in the conservative upstate region where Huckabee could be strong.

In Bluffton, S.C., on Friday, Huckabee stressed his Southern roots.

"We really want to win here, in part because as governor of a state of similar circumstances, I think I have a better understanding than anybody else running for president (about) what unique challenges we face, not just in Southern states, but especially in Southern states," he said.

Thompson, at a Seneca event Friday, rejected McCain's previous call for closing the U.S. prisoner camp at Guantanamo Bay, a facility McCain says has harmed the nation's reputation.

"The last thing in the world we need is a bunch of enemy combatants over here in our court system," Thompson said, adding that the prisoners held there would have additional rights if held in the U.S.

Also Friday, McCain, concerned about efforts by Huckabee backers, posted a Web ad called "Truth Huckabee" to counter attacks on McCain's character and military and political records.

The ad uses quotes from Huckabee, including "Senator McCain, no matter what anyone may say, is a genuine conservative" and "John McCain is a true, honest-to-god American hero."

Huckabee, denying any links to them, has denounced the attacks on McCain and asked that they be stopped.

In Nevada, the intensity of the Democratic contest was evident in the sharp exchanges between the Obama and Clinton camps in the final days before the caucus Saturday – and in the tone of radio ads that are generating controversy.

UNITE HERE, part of the Culinary Workers Union, which has endorsed Obama, is running Spanish-language ads that say "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people."

And in appearances Thursday night in Las Vegas and again Friday in Reno, Obama mocked some of the answers Clinton and Edwards gave in a debate earlier this week, saying, "Folks, they don't tell you what they mean!"

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer accused the Obama camp of hypocrisy for attacking labor-based ads in Iowa "but in Nevada, he's looking the other way as they falsely attack his opponents."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said "it takes some chutzpah" for the Clinton campaign to complain since it has been "repeatedly launching absolutely false attacks" against Obama.

Edwards on Friday attacked Obama for his praise earlier this week of the Republican Party and Ronald Reagan.

"Ronald Reagan, the man who busted unions, the man who did everything in his power to destroy the organized labor movement, the man who created a tax structure that favored the richest Americans against middle class and working families, ... we know that Ronald Reagan is not an example of change for a presidential candidate running in the Democratic Party," Edwards told The Associated Press.

Obama told the Reno Gazette-Journal editorial board Monday that "Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it," Obama said.

"I think it's fair to say that the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10 to 15 years in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom," he told the newspaper.

Clinton also took issue with that statement.

"That's not the way I remember the last ten to fifteen years," she said, adding that she didn't consider it a better idea to privatize Social Security, eliminate the minimum wage, undercut health benefits, shut down the government or drive the country into debt. "I think we know what needs to be done in America. And I think we're ready to do it. I'm ready to lead on day one."

Obama dismissed her claim at the University of Nevada Reno. "Senator Clinton has said she is ready to lead from day one, but it's important on day one to get it right, whether you're talking about war or you're talking about economic proposals."

The Associated Press contributed to the report.