McCain Faces Some Different South Carolina Variables This Year

OKATIE, S.C. — The signs of change are everywhere in South Carolina, a state that stopped John McCain's presidential bid in its tracks in 2000 and now plays a key role in the future of his 2008 bid.

"5:00 p.m.-7:00 p.m. Bone Density Screening," said one of the signs. "6:30 p.m.-9:30 p.m. Mah Jongg Mavens."

The words were on an activity schedule at one of the state's Sun City communities that have brought retired northerners here by the tens of thousands since 2000, an influx that could affect Saturday's GOP primary.

"I think the demographic changes are positive for John," South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a McCain backer, said of the retirees, who tend to be more socially moderate than native-born South Carolina Republicans.

But there's another set of signs – perhaps more significant – that could be spell trouble for McCain. They say "Clinton" and "Obama" and "Edwards" and are evidence of a huge difference between 2000 and 2008 in South Carolina. This time there is a vibrant Democratic primary sure to draw moderates and independents – the kind of folks McCain counts on – to the Democrats' Jan. 26 contest.

"I don't see much difference between the electorate in 2008 from 2000," David Woodard, a Clemson University political scientist and GOP consultant, said in downplaying the newcomers' impact. "The major difference is who will turn out to vote in 2008 as opposed to who turned out to vote in 2000."

By the time the road show got here in 2000, Al Gore had the Democratic presidential nomination sewn up. The GOP contest was a bitter battle between George W. Bush and McCain, the latter having shocked Bush in New Hampshire. Bush took South Carolina by 12 points as a record 561,000 ballots were cast.

Democrats didn't weigh in until their after-the-fact March 9 caucuses. Some voted in the GOP primary, many backing McCain.

McCain can't count on a replay, according to Woodard, who predicts a GOP primary turnout of 450,000 even though the state has more people than it did in 2000. And recent history shows that the purer the GOP primary, the worse McCain does as he battles with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

McCain, during a South Carolina bus tour late last year, expressed confidence.

"We came into South Carolina with a lead," he said of his 2000 loss here. "The dynamic was an overwhelming media blitz (by Bush) plus galvanizing the political and financial base of this state. This time we've go the political base and the financial base of this state. This time I'm not totally unknown, to say the least."

A Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll completed this week gives McCain a 29 percent-23 percent lead in South Carolina over Huckabee, followed by Romney at 13 and Thompson at 12.

Romney, concentrating more on Nevada's Saturday GOP caucuses, on Wednesday set a high hurdle for McCain in South Carolina, saying the Arizona senator has the state "pretty well wrapped up."

"It would be an enormous surprise if he were unable to win here," Romney said.

At Winthrop University, political scientist Scott Huffmon, who has polled the state several times, said the new retiree base should help McCain, though it's unclear by how much. The transplants, according to Huffmon, "don't tend to have the strong evangelical bent" that characterizes many home-grown Republicans.

"They are retired and more concerned with taxes," Huffmon said.

That would be people like Debbie Hicks, who moved to Sun City Hilton Head from Minnesota two years ago. She's an independent, leaning to Romney but considering McCain and Democrat John Edwards. Her vote is driven largely by economic issues. On social issues, she is "moderate to liberal," supporting a woman's right to have an abortion and seeing no reason to ban same-sex marriage.

Retiree Bill Dreyer moved here seven years ago from Philadelphia. As a former Democrat-turned-independent-minded Republican, he's also the kind of new South Carolina voter McCain needs.

But Dreyer already has cast an early ballot for Romney. He likes McCain but the Romney vote has "a lot to do with the border issue." McCain's plan, to Dreyer, sounds like amnesty.

Probably not unusual, said political scientist Brent Nelsen of Furman University, who believes many retirees – including ex-military who might naturally gravitate to McCain - are "just as likely to be mad at him about immigration."

One thing everyone seems to agree on is that 2000 offers little to indicate how 2008 will turn out in South Carolina. In 2000, Bush, coming off the New Hampshire loss, poured enormous sums of money into the state and had the consensus backing of the state's GOP leadership. McCain has much of it this year, but it's divided among the four top contenders.

Former Bush adviser Dan Bartlett, a key strategist in the 2000 campaign, said McCain faces a major challenge here because there are several viable candidates, not just one, to work against.

"My sense is you are going to have a pretty muddled verdict in South Carolina," he said. "Obviously there will be a victor, but it won't be by much."

"It's going to be difficult to try to learn too many lessons from 2000 and apply it. It's a fundamentally different race in South Carolina this time," Bartlett said.

Mark McKinnon, Bush's top media adviser in 2000, now works for McCain.

"If we'd lost South Carolina we would have lost the nomination," McKinnon said of 2000, recalling that Bush was bolstered among evangelicals because McCain had denigrated some of their leaders.

McCain also was targeted in personal attacks – never traced back to the Bush campaign – concerning his character. The attacks hurt McCain at the time, but McKinnon insists they will help him now.

"Any lasting effect it has is that South Carolina voters want to rectify that and look forward to voting for McCain," he said. "Psychologically, these voters would like to repair that damage."

Austin American-Statesman reporter W. Gardner Selby contributed to this report.