Political Fruits of the Iraq Troop 'Surge' Are Still Elusive One Year Later

WASHINGTON — A year after President Bush announced plans to boost U.S. troop levels in Iraq, violence is down sharply and U.S. troop deaths are at their lowest level in nearly four years. The number of Iraqi civilian deaths, while still high, also has been reduced.

But the security gains have not been matched by the political progress needed to hold Iraq together and prevent bloodshed.

John Jones, a career U.S. diplomat who leads four dozen American aid workers, military officials, judicial experts and others, is trying to help craft an effective democratic government in the Iraqi province of Diyala, some 50 miles northeast of Baghdad.

Diyala is a hotbed of insurgent activity. Six U.S. soldiers were killed and four were wounded there Wednesday in a booby-trapped house.

In recent months, Diyala has seen violence drop as a U.S. troop surge and local Sunni leaders have combined to push back against al-Qaida. But the Iraqi government hasn't allocated money for the province since September and local coffers are empty, Jones said.

The provincial governor, who has survived eight attempts on his life, makes the hazardous journey to Baghdad to rattle a tin cup from one ministry to the next, trying to scrounge the money to pay for the nuts and bolts of administering his province of palm groves, rural villages and swamps.

"This is just an example of the neglect that we have from the central government in Baghdad," Jones told reporters at the State Department on Tuesday. "That has been a major headache for us."

The headaches don't end in Diyala. The Iraqi parliament scarcely functions. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is widely distrusted. Half his cabinet can't be counted on to show up for work. And a leading force behind the security gains — Sunni tribal leaders — remains virtually without a political voice in the young Iraqi democracy.

The U.S. troop surge was meant to provide security to give Iraqi sects an opportunity for political reconciliation. But it is in danger of being squandered, analysts say.

"The situation, I think, remains grave," said Lee Hamilton, co-chair of the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group, which concluded a year ago that conditions in Iraq were "grave and deteriorating."

"It has not improved, in a political sense, very much at all," Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman from Indiana, said in an interview Wednesday. "The only way to get stability, let alone victory, is to get a political agreement, and we just are not there."

A year ago Thursday, in a televised address to the nation, Bush called for a shift in U.S. strategy in Iraq, outlining a plan for sending additional forces there to help improve security, promote political reconciliation and "hasten the day our troops begin coming home."

About 160,000 U.S. forces are now in Iraq, compared with 125,000 at the start of last year.

In recent months, Iraqi insurgents, al-Qaida militants and affiliated groups have suffered serious setbacks at the hands of U.S. and Iraqi security forces, greatly aided by Iraqi citizens.

Baghdad, at least, has seen the deployment of small, platoon-level units of U.S. troops, embedded with Iraqi forces working neighborhood by neighborhood, and often door by door, to root out insurgents and make the streets more secure than before.

And in predominantly Sunni areas, like Anbar province and Diyala, tribal chiefs have joined with U.S. forces in what American analysts have dubbed a "Sunni Awakening," trying to take back their towns and villages from the influence of insurgents and terrorist groups.

"It's made a big difference, because Iraqis have decided to trust Americans this go-around," said retired U.S. Army Col. Paul Hughes, who has extensive Iraq experience and is now an expert on the conflict with the U.S. Institute of Peace, a taxpayer-supported think tank.

The security gains, however, are as fragile as they've been dramatic.

"Because there's been nothing done at the national level that is building the institutions and the processes for national government," Hughes said.

Bush, who spoke with Maliki by videophone on Tuesday, is more hopeful.

"The Iraqis are beginning to see political progress that is matching the dramatic security gains for the past year," Bush told reporters at the White House on Tuesday, before leaving for a week of leaders throughout the Middle East. "Life is returning to normal in communities across Iraq, with children back in school and shops reopening and markets bustling with commerce ... and we believe 2008 is going to see continued progress."

In announcing the surge a year ago, Bush voiced hope that Iraq would pass legislation that would provide for the equitable distribution of Iraqi oil revenues. It hasn't happened.

In nearly five years of fighting, 3,911 U.S. troops have died and 28,870 have been wounded, according to Pentagon figures.

In announcing the surge, Bush said Iraq would pass legislation that would provide for the equitable distribution of Iraqi oil revenues and take other steps to develop the government. But progress has been slow, if non-existent.

— Oil. A recent report by the nonpartisan U.S. Government Accountability Office faulted both the Bush administration and the Iraqi government for failing to develop a strategic plan for dealing with Iraq's rich crude oil deposits — nearly 10 percent of the world's known reserves.

The United States has spent more than $5 billion to rebuild Iraq's energy sector, but, at 2.4 million barrels of oil per day, Iraqi petroleum production still lags well behind the U.S. goal of 3 million barrels per day.

— Elections. Bush predicted that Iraq would hold provincial elections before 2007 was out. The elections, however, have yet to take place.

When provincial elections were held in 2005, many Sunnis boycotted. Without a voice, many Sunni tribal leaders have little stake in helping to make provincial governance work, a situation new elections might help to correct.

"These tribes would very much like provincial elections as soon as possible," said Rend Al-Rahim Francke, a former Iraqi ambassador to the United States. She scoffs at the notion that provincial elections might be held sometime this spring.

"No way," said Francke. "Any time that you set the ball rolling you need six to eight months. So my estimate is the earliest they could happen now is late summer."

— Constitutional revisions and political inclusion. Bush said Iraq would revise its constitution and take other steps aimed at creating opportunities for former members of the Baath party, the ruling party under former President Saddam Hussein, to return to the civil and political life of the country.

Neither constitutional amendments nor Baathification reforms have taken place.

Some blame lies with Iraqi incompetence. It takes time, analysts point out, to build political and bureaucratic skills largely lost under three decades of Saddam's harsh rule.

Political will is also an issue in a country where Shiites — 65 percent of the population — have regained control of the government after decades of being governed by minority Sunnis.

The Bush administration is also to blame, the GAO concluded, for not backing the military surge with a commensurate effort to nurture political reconciliation.

"U.S. efforts lack strategies with a clear purpose, scope, roles and performance measures," the GAO concluded in its October report.