McCain's Bus On the Move; Hillary's Is Refueled

MANCHESTER, N.H. — With his improbable victory here Tuesday, John McCain, his campaign given up for dead just months ago, sent a resounding message to fellow Republicans in a muddled GOP contest: "Mac is back."

But New Hampshire's independent-minded voters, well practiced in confounding political prognosticators, threatened to shake up the Democratic race even more than Iowa.

With more than half of the vote counted, Hillary Clinton led with about 40 percent, slowing the momentum of Barack Obama, who had been projected in polls to win handily.

With a victory here Tuesday — it would have been his second in as many contests — Obama could have dramatically demonstrated his electability, a powerful argument for his candidacy in the Democratic primaries and caucuses ahead.

But Clinton's strong showing stunned not only the Obama camp but her own camp as well.

Her showing apparently came on the strength of her appeal to women and the state's continuing fondness for her husband, former President Bill Clinton, who campaigned tirelessly for his wife.

Fifty-seven percent of the voters in the Democratic primary were women, and Clinton carried them 47-34 percent over Obama in contrast to the Iowa caucus, where Obama won women voters, 35-30 percent over Clinton. Clinton's emotional moment on Monday could have resonated with women voters.

Her campaign in New Hampshire ended in a swirl of unconfirmed rumors that new advisers would be coming on board and that she might skip the Jan. 26 Democratic primary in South Carolina — she trails Obama in polls there — and concentrate on the Jan. 19 caucus in Nevada and the multi-state contest on Feb. 5. Such rumors, whether a campaign tactic or not, served to dramatize her apparent comeback in the balloting.

Her strong showing here, however, all but guarantees a no-holds-barred contest between the two in South Carolina before the Super Tuesday confrontation next month.

The McCain victory and Clinton's strong showing in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary is likely to force their chief rivals to reassess and, perhaps, retool their campaigns as the candidates fan out to Michigan, Nevada and, most importantly, South Carolina.

Mitt Romney, having suffered his second defeat in less than a week in the Republican presidential contest, is counting on his native Michigan and its Jan. 15 primary to steady his once high-flying campaign before the GOP South Carolina primary on Jan. 19.

But the results in New Hampshire's primary underscored the dilemma Romney and other Republicans will face in the weeks ahead as they chase McCain, the newly minted GOP front-runner.

McCain won by appealing not only to partisans but, more importantly, to voters unaffiliated with either major party —"the fastest growing political party in America," as McCain campaign manager Rick Davis describes them.

Obama had counted on a surge of independent voters to solidify his position in the Democratic race, an historic one as he tries to become the first African-American to be elected president.

And while exit polls showed that more independents voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican contest, Clinton apparently had enough support from partisans and the party establishment to counter strong independent support for Obama.

Moreover, enough independents appeared to stick with McCain in the GOP voting, as they did in 2000, to also help deny Obama a victory and give Clinton enough room for a comeback in the same state that made her husband the "comeback kid" in his successful bid for the White House in 1992.

Exit polls conducted by TV networks found that the top issues for voters in the Democratic primary were the economy (36 percent), Iraq (32 percent) and health care (28 percent). Voters in the Republican primary ranked the issues this way: the economy (29 percent), Iraq (24 percent), immigration (22 percent) and the war on terror (20 percent).

About 14 percent indicated they decided for whom to vote on Tuesday, initially suggesting that Obama might benefit from momentum coming out of Iowa. Nearly half, though, said they were not influenced by the vote in the Iowa caucus. And among the voters who indicated they made up their minds in the last three days, Clinton and Obama split evening, 39-39 percent.

The voting in both the Democratic and Republican primaries was, to some degree, a referendum on the outgoing Bush administration, reflecting the desire of nearly 70 percent of Americans for a change in the course of America's public policies.

Fully two-thirds of the Democratic primary voters said they feel angry about the Bush administration and nearly all the rest said they were dissatisfied. Among Republican primary voters, fewer than one in 10 were enthusiastic and only four in 10 were satisfied.

Fully 44 percent of all registered voters in New Hampshire are not affiliated with either party, and they are the largest share of the electorate in the Granite State. Eight years ago, they lifted McCain to an unexpected 18-point landslide over the GOP establishment candidate, George W. Bush.

McCain got a larger share of New Hampshire independents than any of his rivals. But McCain's political resurrection here was due largely to his appeal to the GOP establishment rather to political mavericks.

Acknowledging the message out of Iowa —that Americans want change in Washington — McCain emphasized his experience as a reformer in Washington. But he also pointed out that he is a seasoned hand in national security, an important quality - he argued - in a time of war.

Similarly, Clinton spent the five days between Iowa's caucus and New Hampshire's primary pounding away at Obama's lack of experience. And her husband, on the eve of the primary, lashed out at the news media for ignoring what he described as "fairy tale" aspects of Obama's public record.

Clinton also had the backing of New Hampshire's Democratic political establishment.

Still, the surge of independent voters into the Democratic contests so far in New Hampshire and Iowa could signal difficulties for the Republican Party in the fall general election.

"This is a great sign of what is to come," said New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley.