High-Stakes Primary Looms in New Hampshire

MANCHESTER, N.H. — White House hopefuls barnstormed New Hampshire on Monday on the eve of the nation's first presidential primary, a contest that could radically reshuffle the fortunes of some leading contenders of both parties.

Tuesday's balloting in a state notorious for independent-minded voters could complete the resurrection of Arizona Sen. John McCain's bid for the Republican nomination and severely cripple his chief rival, Mitt Romney, the former governor of next-door Massachusetts.

And on the Democratic side, with Barack Obama surging to a double-digit lead in the latest polls, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are trying to survive for a one-on-one contest with the young Illinois senator who is the toast of the political world in the early going of the 2008 campaign.

The stakes appeared to be the greatest for Edwards, who lacks the financial resources and on-the-ground organizations in states with upcoming primaries, most notably South Carolina, the first-in-the-South contest set for Jan. 26.

In a conference call with reporters Monday, Edwards' top advisers conceded that their candidate is unlikely to win Tuesday, but insisted that the campaign would continue through the entire nominating process.

"We're going to take the fight to the convention," said deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince.

With Obama holding a commanding lead in the latest polls in New Hampshire, Edwards is counting on a second place finish, which would be strong enough, his advisers argued, to fatally damage Clinton's bid.

But the latest polling by CNN and WMUR, the state's largest TV station, found that Edwards is losing ground in the Granite State, running third with 16 percent, compared to 39 percent for Obama and 30 percent for Clinton.

"A big win for Senator Obama will finish John Edwards and leave Senator Clinton with only a slim chance to derail him," said Andrew Polsky, a presidential expert at Hunter College.

In his daily tracking poll in New Hampshire on Monday, pollster John Zogby said Obama had rocketed to a 10-point lead over Clinton and a 20-point lead over Edwards, a sizeable bounce from his commanding victory in the Iowa caucus last Thursday.

Among independents, who make up nearly half of the New Hampshire electorate and can vote in either party primary, Obama led Clinton 47-22 percent.

Obama, in a series of appearances around the state, reflected the confidence of a front-runner, but still criticized Clinton for chastising him in a weekend debate for raising "false hopes" about what he can deliver as president.

"If anything crystallized what this campaign is about, it was that right there," he said in Lebanon, N.H. "Some are thinking in terms of our constraints, and some are thinking about our limitless possibilities."

Clinton, during an appearance in Portsmouth, appeared to struggle with her emotions when asked about how she copes with the demands of a presidential campaign. "It is very personal for me," she said.

Still, she managed to take aim at Obama's lack of experience in Washington. "Some of us are ready and some of are not," she said.

On the Republican side, Zogby found a 5-point lead for McCain over Romney, 34-29 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the overwhelming victor in the Iowa GOP caucus, hardly a factor, with only 9 percent support.

Like Obama on the Democratic side, McCain was the clear favorite of independent voters – 43-26 percent over Romney, a remarkable comeback from last summer, when his campaign imploded and had to retool with virtually no money left in its coffers.

In 2000, McCain defeated George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary on the strength of support from independents.

But for McCain, having ignored Iowa in favor of focusing on New Hampshire, it's almost a must-win for him here Tuesday.

For Romney, who once counted on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, a loss in his next-door state would be a serious blow, but one softened by his money and organization elsewhere.

Dartmouth government professor Linda Fowler said both have a lot on the line here.

"Obviously, this is the only chance McCain gets," she said, noting that he ignored Iowa to focus on New Hampshire, "particularly knowing he is ahead in the polls and expectations are that he is going to win. If he comes in second, I think he's done."

McCain has spent several days predicting victory. Romney has lowered his expectations, however.

"I can't predict a victory, but I can predict that I'd like a victory," Romney, who ran second in Iowa last week said Monday in Stratham.

He added: "And from here, we're going on to Michigan and South Carolina and Nevada. This is not a one- or two-state campaign. This is a 50-state campaign."

At a Rotary Club speech at a Nashua country club, Romney continued his effort to benefit from Obama's rise on the Democratic side.

"Barack Obama may well become the Democratic nominee and if we put up a long-term serving senator who can talk about his years and years of experience Barack Obama will do to him what he did (in Iowa) to the Democrats who made the same pitch," Romney said.

McCain opted not to respond to the Romney comment, aimed at him.

"I'll let the voters make a decision about how well I would match up (against Obama). My first priority is to win this primary before I start to consider the, quote, match-up. I've got to focus on the task at hand."

But at a State Capitol rally in Concord, McCain, without mentioning Romney (a one-term governor), said the presidency "requires leadership that doesn't need any on-the-job training."