New Slogans for China, but Some Worry They're Empty

BEIJING — Mao Zedong, China's top leader from 1949 until his death in 1976, famously said that political power comes from the barrel of a gun — and his rule was marked by violence.

Deng Xiaoping, Mao's chain-smoking successor, called getting rich "glorious," a phrase that helped kick-start capitalist reforms in the world's most populous country.

Now Chinese President Hu Jintao's favored political philosophies of "scientific development" and "harmonious society" are expected to be added to China's Communist Party constitution when the party — which controls China's sprawling bureaucracy — begins a key meeting here on Monday.

The slogans, plastered on billboards across China, highlight a shift within China's leadership as the Communist Party reacts to growing economic inequality and a rapidly deteriorating environment.

Social tensions over the rich-poor gap have sparked unrest among China's masses and Hu's slogans are an effort to focus attention on alleviating the problems.

"(The philosophies) are significantly different from the policies of the '90s which were much more geared toward marketization," said Anthony Saich, an expert in Chinese politics at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

"They at least demonstrate a commitment to bring greater benefits to a larger section of China's population," he said.

Unfortunately, say many analysts, the initiative does not include steps toward democracy.

The congress convening Monday is a twice-a-decade gathering of China's 2,000 or so top Communist Party delegates. Traditionally, the meetings are used to set the national political agenda for the next five years and select the powerful committees that run China's affairs.

The recent change in Beijing's focus has been driven largely by problems created by China's breakneck growth.

As China's cities have gotten richer, its vast countryside — home to some two-thirds of China's 1.3 billion people — has remained mired in poverty with many farmers living on a few hundred dollars each year.

At the same time, China's explosive growth has led to worsening pollution.

A recent World Bank report found that 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities were in China. A study released in July by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated that 20 million Chinese will fall ill with respiratory diseases each year by 2020.

Hu's ideal of a "scientific development" stresses "people-centered development that is comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable," the Xinhua news agency, a mouthpiece of the Communist Party, reported last month.

In 2005, Hu offered a rambling explanation of his concept of "harmonious society" including that "such a society will enable all the people to share in the social wealth," according to Xinhua.

In their broad goals, the ideals dovetail with efforts by Beijing to tackle pollution and poverty.

In 2004, the central government adopted a "green GDP index," an accounting process meant to reward officials for protecting the environment. Under Hu's leadership, China's state-run media has carried unusual criticism the Three Gorges Dam, the massive Yangtze River hydroelectric project that displaced at least 1.2 million people and has led to falling water quality as towns and factories are inundated.

To address poverty, Hu eliminated most agricultural taxes last year and has lowered fees for students in poor areas.

"The current generation of leaders is more realistic about the social situation," said Lei Hengshun, a professor of environmental studies at Chongqing University. "They want to solve problems scientifically."

But the government's effort to curb pollution has largely failed, and other analysts are skeptical of Hu's slogans.

Beijing quietly delayed a key "green GDP index" report last year after local leaders opposed its limits to economic growth.

A central government-led drive to stop companies from dumping untreated waste into the Huai River, one of China's largest waterways, fell short because local officials protected polluting companies, said Guo Qiaoyu, a Beijing-based researcher for the environmental nonprofit group the Nature Conservancy.

"It's cheaper to dump into the river than to treat the waste, and local governments often depend on factories for tax revenues," she said.

Many scholars argue that given China's size and complexity, Beijing will only be able clean up its environment and attack corruption by allowing democratic reforms and a free press, but Hu is widely seen to have tightened social controls since he became president.

"A lot of analysts thought there might be a shift (toward greater democracy) with this generation of leaders, but the political atmosphere has been much harsher than many people expected," Saich said.

"If they're not going to allow any pressure from below ... the central directives are a pretty blunt instrument to get conformity," he said.