Florida Polling for 2008 Presidential Race Shows Giuliani and Clinton Tied

WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are in a virtual tie among Florida voters, with Clinton inching ahead, according to a poll released Wedneday.

Clinton leads Giuliani 46-44 in the week-long survey completed Monday by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. That's a flip from the 46-44 Giuliani lead the poll showed two weeks ago.

It's the first time Clinton has led Giuliani in a head-to-head Florida match-up in the poll.

The poll, which is paid for by the Connecticut university, has a 3.2 percent plus or minus margin of error, meaning the margin of error is larger than the difference between the two candidates.

In two other states identified by the poll as "swing states," the two New Yorkers were tied 43-43 in Ohio and Clinton held a one-point lead, 45-44 in Pennsylvania. Again, both results were within the margin of error.

More importantly for Clinton, for the first time since the poll began a year and a half ago, more Florida voters view her favorably than unfavorably, said Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director.

"That's a breakthrough," Brown said. "It's real movement.

Sen. Clinton is making steady progress among Independents and Republicans. It's not huge, but it's steady across the board."

Among Democrats in Florida, Clinton holds a 30-point lead over her nearest primary challenger, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama – 43 percent to 13 percent.

The next closest is former Vice President Al Gore, who has indicated he is not a candidate, with 11 percent.

Brown noted Clinton's support among Florida Democrats is probably even higher than 43 percent because most of those who support non-candidate Gore listed her as their second choice.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina got the nod from 8 percent of the Florida Democrats. None of the other Democrats in the race got more than 2 percent of the vote and 15 percent either said they did not know or did not answer.

While the Democratic race is considered close in Iowa, which holds the first caucus, and New Hampshire, which holds the first primary, Brown said Clinton's lead in Florida takes on added significance because the state's Jan. 29 primary is the next big event.

"Florida is a pretty big roadblock for the anti-Clinton forces," Brown said.

Among Florida Republicans, Giuliani holds a slight lead over unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, an actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee.

Giuliani leads the field with 26 percent to Thompson's 19 percent.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 11 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 9 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who also has not announced his candidacy, received 6 percent. None of the other GOP candidates received more than 2 percent and 18 percent said they either didn't know or did not answer.

"The emergence of Fred Thompson as a potential threat to Giuliani has frozen the race," Brown said. Although Thompson's surge in the polls "has leveled off ... we're now waiting to see if Thompson is as good in the flesh as he is on paper.

Thompson has indicated he will make a formal announcement of whether he will become a candidate in September.

Clinton appears to a have gained strength by her clash with Obama over foreign policy, particularly the question of whether she would hold face-to-face meetings with foreign dictators.

"In our poll, there is no evidence it is doing anything but helping her," Brown said.

Looking at other potential match-ups in Florida, the poll found that as of now: Giuliani would beat Obama 44-41; Obama would beat Thompson 43-37; and Clinton would beat Thompson 49-40.

Florida voters have a 50 percent to 42 percent favorable versus unfavorable opinion of Clinton. On June 27, the rating was 47-47.

"Whether it's a one-time phenomenon or the beginning of a trend, she is beginning to increase her favorables and decrease her negatives," Brown said, noting that many Democrats have been concerned Clinton is so disliked among voters that she could not win a general election.

"That is critical for her," he said.

Among other candidates, Giuliani had a 53-26 favorable-unfavorable rating among Florida voters; Obama had a 44-26 rating; Edwards had a 42-32 rating; McCain had a 34-39 rating and Thompson had a 33-17 rating. Romney did not receive a score because 54 percent said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion.

For the first time, the Quinnipiac poll asked voters what impact endorsements from certain special interest groups would have on their support for a candidate.

Among Florida voters, 10 percent said an endorsement by a gay rights group would make them more likely to support a particular candidate while 28 percent said it would make them less likely and 60 percent said it would make no difference.

The poll found that endorsements by business groups, abortion rights groups and conservative Christian groups also had a slight negative impact.