Cuba in Limbo a Year after Castro Cedes Power

MIAMI — A year after Fidel Castro stunned the world by stepping aside due to a serious illness, Cuba remains in limbo, stuck between loyalty to Castro's hard-core communism and a growing desire among its people for change.

Outside Castro's immediate circle, nobody knows when or even whether the aging Cuban firebrand — who turns 81 next month — will return to power.

What is known is that Castro's brother, Raul, 76, is officially in charge, and that Cuba's military remains loyal to him, making dramatic change unlikely in the near-term future.

"Everything is in suspended animation," said Daniel Erikson of Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. "No one is willing to make any big moves until Fidel's future is known. This could go on awhile."

Although it has maintained a low profile in the year since Castro fell ill, Cuba's military is a key player as the island lurches toward an uncertain future. Crippled by draconian cutbacks and the loss of Soviet subsidies that once made it one of the globe's most powerful Third World armies, the armed forces remain a potent force capable of quelling any domestic disturbances.

"It's probably the most legitimate institution in the eyes of the Cuban people," said Edward Gonzalez, an emeritus professor at UCLA and a Rand Corp. consultant on Cuba. "Although they've lost equipment and soldiers, they have a large reservoir of talent. They are the kingmakers, and they support Raul."

A citizen militia estimated to number more than 1 million augments the roughly 50,000-strong regular military. Trained as guerrillas in the event of a U.S. invasion, the militia may also represent a core of die-hards who would remain loyal to communism even after both Castro brothers are gone.

After a year with no Fidel, everyday Cubans seem resigned to the uncertainty, and life goes on as normal. Many are still loyal to Fidel, and while some speak privately of a desire for change, all realize that Raul Castro and his military are firmly in charge.

"They will tell you they are living badly," said Eloy Gutierrez Menoyo, a Cuban dissident. "Talk to young people, and 90 percent will tell you their dream is to leave the country."

As long as Raul Castro remains healthy, experts say the chance of a near-term popular revolt is low.

The more immediate challenge is providing more jobs, higher incomes and more consumer goods to a population of 11 million grown restive after decades of shortages and sacrifice.

It is clear that Raul Castro recognizes the problem. In his year in power, he has sharply criticized corruption and low productivity, while calling for a national dialogue on how to make things better.

But Raul — a hard-nosed pragmatist who has supported limited market reforms in the past — may be handcuffed by his brother's lingering presence and strong distaste for opening the economy.

"As long as Fidel is hovering in the background, those who are pragmatic can't institute economic reforms," Gonzalez said. "Jump-starting the economy is the only way to legitimize their rule. I think Raul has a one- to two-year window, or the population may begin to turn."

Raul Castro assumed power last July 31 when the government announced Fidel was seriously ill. Although the elder Castro's condition has remained secret, it appears he suffered from diverticular disease, a life-threatening ailment in which fluids leak from the digestive tract.

Castro underwent several surgeries, some unsuccessful. Last fall, rumors flew that he was near death, but in 2007 he has mounted something of a comeback, meeting with visiting dignitaries and appearing in occasional video clips.

Lately he has penned a series of "reflections" in Cuba's state-run newspapers, railing against alleged U.S. plots on his life and the policies of President Bush.

Analysts say the essays may be a sign Fidel's return is unlikely.

"I doubt he will resume the presidency," said Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana who is now at the Center for International Policy, another Washington, D.C. think tank. "He's taken a role as resident philosopher. That means Raul must strike a balance. He has to reform the economy enough to satisfy the people, but not so much that he upsets Fidel."

After an alert brought troops to the streets for a few weeks following the announcement of Fidel's illness, Cuba's military has gone back to its routine and is rarely a visible presence. Raul has run the force with ruthless efficiency for more than four decades and the top leadership remains loyal to him.

Once the Castro brothers are gone, however, the chances for infighting within the military will increase, said Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst on Cuba and author of the book, "After Fidel." Already, the military's large role in running state businesses — from agriculture to tourism — has sparked jealousies that could blossom into open conflict.

"Tensions will inevitably multiply as officers and military interest groups divide over policy choices, compete for resources and promotions and argue about military missions in post-Castro Cuba," Latell wrote recently in the Washington Quarterly.

Many experts list Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, 55, as the most likely post-Castro leader. Trained as a physician, Lage supported economic liberalization in the 1990s, but his standing with the military is uncertain.

Whether Lage would move fast enough to satisfy the Cuban people's desire for change — and whether he would retain the military's backing — is a mystery.

Should post-Castro disturbances break out, the new Cuban leadership might feel compelled to turn their troops on the protesters. Orders to shoot might spark chaos within the military, adding to the turmoil in the streets, Latell theorizes.

Whatever the unknowns, analysts agree that Cuba's leaders must begin reforming the economy to stave off growing discontent or else face potential turmoil once the Castro brothers are gone.

"They're going to have to start making changes," Latell said. "There's already a low level of poorly articulated discontent, especially among the youth. The leadership is limping along, but the pressure for change is building."