Parties Plot to Win Growing Youth Vote

WASHINGTON — After years in which millions of young Americans were no-shows at the polls, the youth vote is on the rise and political parties are taking notice.

"A new generation has arrived," Heather Smith, director of George Washington University's Young Voter Strategies program, told a gathering Tuesday at the National Press Club.

Dubbed the "Millennial Generation," these newcomers, ages 18 to 29, have surprised observers by becoming volunteers, talking about politics and going to the polls in far greater numbers than the preceding "Generation X."

Now some are asking if they could provide a margin of victory in close elections. One presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat, has made young supporters the key to his campaign strategy.

The "Millennials," born 1977-1997, include nearly 42 million eligible voters now and are projected to grow to one-third of the U.S. voting population by 2015, Smith said.

Democrats have the early advantage with the group since young voters tilted heavily in their direction in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

If these same voters go the same way in 2008, they could become the new base for the party, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. "We can't rely on the senior vote" that was once the party's mainstay, she said.

Republicans haven't conceded the Millennial generation, however. Pollster Brian Nienaber of the Tarrance Group said the party is targeting under-30 voters who already own houses, have families, attend church regularly and who also are likely to vote.

He said that the GOP needs a successful presidential campaign because a young person who votes for the same party three elections in a row usually votes that way for life.

"It's going to be a struggle" for Republicans, Nienaber acknowledged.

Whether the youth vote can provide a margin of victory in 2008 is uncertain.

"It is still unknown how many will show up to vote," Lake said.

Setting up Internet sites to appeal to the under-30 crowd won't be enough, she said. As with other groups, young voters will turn out the most if there are "person to person" contacts, she said.