Gingrich Has a Pollster, Fundraiser, Speeches -- Is This a Campaign?

WASHINGTON — He's not a presidential candidate, but Newt Gingrich is definitely running a national campaign.

His tax-exempt political organization, American Solutions for Winning the Future, has hired a pollster and a fundraiser.

The group has collected more than $2.1 million, although almost all of it is from just two wealthy donors.

And the former Republican House speaker from Georgia is crisscrossing the country aboard the charters of Moby Dick Airways, a company that is also used by Democratic presidential contender Sen. Hillary Clinton. Gingrich's group paid $90,000 to the private air service in March.

Winning the Future "has all the ear-markings of everything you need to run," said Matt Towery, an Atlanta pollster and former Gingrich campaign chairman. "It is my belief that Gingrich will run for president."

The former House speaker, one of the best known and also most polarizing figures in politics, has insisted that he won't make that decision until next fall. That's after his group holds a conference on Sept. 27 to showcase his myriad plans for remaking the government, Social Security, health care and education in a conservative image.

Then Gingrich will take 30 days to decide on the presidential race, said spokesman Rick Tyler. "A 'no' would come quickly," he said, adding that if the answer is "yes," that would be announced in early November.

Many polls have shown that Gingrich, even without joining the race, ranks as high as third among likely Republican voters in some key states.

But his pollster, Matt Dabrowski, will not be testing Gingrich's personal appeal, Tyler said. He will be researching appealing ways to present some of Gingrich's more contentious proposals — such as private retirement savings accounts to replace Social Security and fraud-proof ID cards for immigrant workers.

And, yes, some of that polling might be done in early presidential primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa, the spokesman said.

If he does jump into the presidential race, Gingrich's tax-exempt group could itself become an issue. Set up last October, Winning the Future now has a staff of about half a dozen working out of an office just a few blocks from the White House.

As a "527" group, a label that comes from the federal tax law that authorizes tax exemptions for political organizations, it is permitted to take unlimited "soft money" contributions but forbidden to participate in partisan politics.

Paige Lance, a former fundraiser for the Republican National Committee, has recently joined the team. So far, the effort has been running chiefly on $1 million from Las Vegas casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson and $1 million from Fred Godley, a real estate investor from Charlotte, N.C., and newcomer to national political contributions.

Gingrich would have to start an entirely new organization if he becomes a candidate for the White House.

However, using the 527 group as an unconventional route into the campaign would almost certainly leave Gingrich open to criticism, especially from reformers who portray these organizations as a loophole for big-dollar influence in politics. Moreover, the use of a tax-exempt group could recall the heat he drew for using college courses to promote his political ideas when he was speaker.

Another obstacle is the emergence of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, now a TV actor, as the possible alternative choice of conservative Republicans.

Gingrich's real intent may not be to gain the White House but to push his ideas, said Towery, his former campaign chairman. "Every 10 years he wants to reinvent America."

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said Gingrich has "too much baggage" to win the Republican nomination and cited the political controversies during his speakership as well as his three marriages and a "know-it-all" persona.

Even so, a Gingrich candidacy could be a "plus" for Republicans by sharpening their primary debates, Sabato said.

"He's like most idea machines. Maybe one out of 10 ideas is terrific, and the others are mediocre or bad. But they're interesting to listen to."