Flu Pandemic Threatens Recession, Group Says

WASHINGTON — A full-blown influenza pandemic on the scale of the "great flu" of 1918 would cost the country's economy $683 billion in the second worst recession since World War II, a nonprofit group warned Thursday.

Although no one knows whether the H5N1 "bird flu" strain of influenza circulating in much of the world will eventually mutate into a form that spreads among humans, President Bush has launched a national effort to prepare the country for that possibility.

But Trust for America's Health, which released the economic analyses, said the preparations have concentrated on medical and public health strategies and have failed to take economic damage into account.

"The United States is not prepared to face an economic shock of this magnitude," said Jeff Levi, executive director of the organization, which advocates more government action to prepare for the feared outbreak.

The study came from an economic model constructed with the advice of financial experts and economists, Levi said. It assumed that a bird flu outbreak would kill 2 million Americans and sicken 30 percent of the population.

It concluded that pandemic losses because of such factors as medical costs, reduced consumer demand and lower productivity could result in a 5.5 percent drop in gross domestic product, the organization said.

States that are heavily dependent on tourist dollars would suffer most, the study concluded, with Nevada having the worst decline, 8.08 percent, and Hawaii, 6.6 percent.

The results fall between other studies, some of which have forecast even more dire economic consequences while others have indicated the economic cost to the United States and other developed countries would be fairly mild.

On the Web:

Trust for America's Health: healthyamericans.org