White House Insists It Is Not Preparing For Possible Democratic Takeover In Congress

WASHINGTON — It's a question the White House has banished to the won't-dignify-it-with-an-answer category: What happens to the Bush presidency if Democrats take over a chamber or two at the Capitol?

Not gonna happen, comes the inevitable response that runs counter to distinct trends picked up by recent polls.

Administration spokesman Tony Snow insisted Thursday the White House is doing nothing by way of staffing or strategy to prepare for the possibility that it could be operating with a hostile Congress come January.

That, experts say, could be folly.

Christopher Atherton, dean of the George Washington Graduate School of Political Management, believes the White House is short on the skill set needed to deal with a Democratic Congress.

"Vice President Cheney and Karl Rove are no shrinking violets when it comes to trying to get their way," Atherton noted.

Could the White House learn to play more nicely with Democrats?

"It would be quite a considerable shift of mindset about how the White House deals with Congress for them to make that leap," Atherton said, "but they are smart people."

The White House, sticking to the Grand Old Party, says it's nothing it will have to worry about.

"We will retain control of both houses," Vice President Cheney said in a Wednesday interview with The Washington Times.

Ditto from President Bush in the Rose Garden last month.

"I don't believe the Democrats are going to take over because our record on the economy is strong," Bush said.

On Thursday, Snow shrugged off a question about how life would change if Democrats took over and whether the White House is doing anything to prepare for that possibility.

"The answer to the first is: chin-pulling, hypothetical," he said. "The answer to the second is no."

Snow denied a published report that the White House is adding lawyers to prepare to defend against investigations by a Democratic Congress.

The White House has declined to talk about such investigations. In a rare comment on it Wednesday, Cheney said, "I don't think we fear investigations."

"I don't think (Democrats) would get much done, if that's all they've got," he said. "And I don't think there's great enthusiasm on the part of the country for that."

Going forward, it's difficult to predict what Washington would look like with a Democratic Congress and a GOP president.

Looking back, there are clear trends, according to Richard Conley, a University of Florida political scientist who has studied similar situations.

It's generally not pretty, as Bush discovered in May 2001, only four months into office, when GOP Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont went independent and threw Senate control to the Democrats.

Court appointments and Bush-backed legislation stalled. The GOP ship was righted when the party won back Senate control in the 2002 elections.

"Bush seemingly realized what some scholars have argued for decades," Conley wrote. "Party control of Congress is indispensable for the legislative presidency."

He recalled how President Clinton "waged protracted veto battles with Republican majorities for six of his eight years in office, endured a government shutdown, and faced the ultimate sanction, impeachment."

President Nixon also wrestled with an opposition Congress in his second term, waging frequent battles over spending before he was chased from office by a resurgent Democratic majority and Watergate.

Presidents Ford and George H.W. Bush, according to Conley, resorted to "extensive use of the veto power to halt Democratic activism in Congress."

The short version, according to Conley, is "a recipe for gridlock and institutional combat."

A poll released Thursday indicated it's a recipe the White House might have to deal with.

The George Washington University Battleground 2006 Poll found "an extremely negative political environment" for the GOP, leaving the party "vulnerable" to losing both chambers.

The poll showed that Democrats enjoy an eight-point edge when respondents were asked if they favor Democrats or Republicans for Congress.

Fifty-one percent said congressional Democrats would do a better job than Bush on issues of most importance to them.

The numbers were compiled from 1,000 registered voters from Sept. 24-27, prior to the House page scandal that drove Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., from office and sparked an investigation of how the GOP leadership handled the matter.

GOP pollster Ed Goeas, who helped compile the numbers, acknowledged the uphill battle his party faces.

"If the national political environment continues to deteriorate, Republican candidates will certainly face serious challenges ahead," Goeas said.

GOP candidates, Goeas said, can find solace in their wallets.

"Even at this late date, most Republican campaigns have expended less than half of their resources," he said.