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Research firm says PC shipments will rise, but…

Gartner Inc. today lowered its forecast for PC-shipment growth and said a weaker global economy could curb gains even further.

The technology research firm dropped its 2008 growth forecast to 10.9 percent, down from its December estimate of an 11.6 percent increase. It now estimates PC makers will ship 293 million units this year.

Gartner said strong sales of notebook PCs and the robust growth in emerging markets such as China and India will continue to fuel worldwide shipments. The firm also said a new wave of desktop-computer replacements by commercial customers could begin in earnest later this year.

The PC market is basically in good shape, said George Shiffler, a Gartner research manager, in a release. “However,” he said, “a deepening U.S. recession, the rising possibility of a sharp slowdown in China’s economy following the Beijing Olympics and the elevated price of oil mean global PC shipments face increasing economic headwinds.”

If those issues play out, Shiffler said, shipment growth rates could hold to the single digits.

Falling prices and the heavier use of PCs in day-to-day life has helped soften the impact of economic slowdowns on computer sales, Shiffler said. But, he said, “PCs are still far from being completely recession-proof.”

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